Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 252126

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1929 UTC sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...Special features...

Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 15.7n 103.0w at 25/2100 
UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered 
strong convection is noted within 90 nm se and 60 nm NW 
semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 11n to 17n between 99w and 
105w. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track 
while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Monday before 
starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves over 
cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Dora is expected 
to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 
maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and michoacan through Monday. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmep4/wtpz24
knhc for more details on the track and intensity of Dora, and 
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers miahsfep2/fzpn03
knhc for more details on marine impacts of Dora.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends across Panama to 11n92w, then resumes
west of Dora at 12n105w to a 1012 mb low pressure near 08n124w to
09n140w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03n to 07n between 78w and 86w, from 08n to 11n between 
100w and 110w, and from 07n to 10n between 126w and 135w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

See special features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, high pressure of 1019 mb 
centered near 25n129w extends a ridge across the offshore 
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja
California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of California,
and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest Mexico. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja California
peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft 
elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part of 
the week. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the galapagos islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the galapagos 
islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 9 ft late 
on Tuesday, except in the Lee of the galapagos islands.

Remainder of the area...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 25n129w, while a 
surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure, located N of
the area near 34n133w to 28n136w. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are noted west of the trough. Light and variable winds 
prevail elsewhere N of 20n W of 125w, with gentle to moderate 
winds prevailing elsewhere with the exception of an area of
moderate to fresh trades from 10n to 16n W of 130w. Seas in the 
8 to 10 ft range are noted per altimeter data across the NW
waters while an area of seas of 8 ft is seen in association with
the trade winds combined with southerly swell. These seas are 
forecast to subside below 8 ft in about 24 hours.



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