Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 240908

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed may 24 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09n74w to 09n86w to 13.5n94w to 
07.5n117w. The ITCZ extends from 08n118w to 08n125w to beyond 
07n140w. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
noted N of 11n between 87w and 94w. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is within 12n nm N and 150 nm S of the axis between 
100w and 121w.  


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area supporting  
moderate NW winds prevailing across the Baja Peninsula waters, 
and light NW to W winds from las Tres Marias to Acapulco. Seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell offshore of baja will 
subside to 4 to 5 ft by this afternoon through early Friday, 
while seas remain 4-5 ft across the waters from Tres Marias to 
Acapulco. The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat N of 20n 
Wednesday through Friday as the ridge builds modestly into the 
region, with winds and seas increasing slightly. 

In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are expected through Thursday, with seas of 2 ft or less, except 
3 to 5 ft near the entrance. Low pressure will deepen just N of 
the area over SW Arizona tonight through the end of the week. A 
trough will extend from the low across the northern Gulf to Baja 
California norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop 
se of the trough tonight, and then again on Thursday night as 
winds become enhanced through the gaps in the higher terrain of 
baja. Seas will increase significantly, reaching 6 to 7 ft each 
night during the nocturnal wind Max.

S of 16n including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, broad and weak low 
pressure has persisted across the offshore waters SW of 
Tehuantepec the past few days, and has gradually drifted to the 
W of 100w. Gentle to moderate se winds occurring between 
Tehuantepec and offshore of Acapulco will gradually weaken and 
veer SW to W tonight through Friday.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Moderate E to se winds prevail between the papagayo region and 
Tehuantepec, with seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Expect these 
conditions to continue through this evening before gentle to 
moderate SW to W monsoonal winds spread N of 09n and into the 
coastal waters through Fri. Nocturnal offshore winds will pulse 
to fresh levels near the Gulf of papagayo by Saturday night. 
Moderate SW winds are expected S of 09n through Thursday night, 
with seas subsiding in SW swell today before a new pulse of SW 
swell arrives Thursday through late Friday. Otherwise, little 
change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

Remainder of the area...

a weak ridge extends from 30n136w se to near 18n115w. The ridge 
will drift se today as a trough moves se across the waters N of 
30n accompanied by long period NW swell. This will build seas to 
6 to 8 ft from 30n to 32n between 120w and 135w. Elsewhere N of 
the convergence zone, the weak ridge will maintain moderate 
trade winds S of 18n, with seas of 5 to 7 ft expected. Little 
change is anticipated through the upcoming weekend.



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