Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 210324

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
315 UTC sun Jan 21 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 09n75w to 05n85w to 06n95w. The 
ITCZ continues from 06n95w to 07n110w to 10n121w then resumes 
from 09n127w to beyond 07n140w. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted from 08n to 15n between 114w and 121w.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 06n to 10n between
109w and 130w. 


offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Gulf of tehuantepec: fresh to strong winds will continue through
Sunday morning, before diminishing to 20 kt or less. Looking 
ahead, strong to near gale winds are expected again beginning 
Monday night and prevailing through Thursday. 

Gulf of california: fresh to strong winds are expected across 
the central and southern portions of the Gulf Sunday evening 
through Monday. These winds will then slowly diminish Monday 
night through Wednesday. 

Large NW swell continues to propagate se across the waters west
of the Baja Peninsula, with seas of 8-13 ft prevailing. This 
large swell is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs 
of Baja California and Mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly 
subside the next couple of days, they are still expected to 
remain above 8 ft over this area into the middle of next week.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh each night through Monday
night over the Gulf of papagayo, then increasing to strong each
night Tuesday night through Thursday night. Elsewhere N of 09n, 
light to gentle offshore flow will prevail. Gentle southerly 
winds will prevail S of 09n for the next few days. 

Remainder of the area...

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered just north of the area near
33n133w. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to strong winds from 10n to 25n and west of 
122w. Large NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast 
waters, with seas 12 ft or greater prevailing over much of the 
forecast waters north of 20n and west of 120w. Seas 8 ft or 
greater cover nearly all the the open waters N of 05n and west of
100w. Fresh to strong trades will prevail north of the ITCZ to 
around 20n for the next several days. A surface trough embedded 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ along 122w is helping to generate 
convection across the area mainly east of the trough axis, 
discussed in the ITCZ section. 



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