Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 230517

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 am EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

the monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10n14w, to 05n19w. The ITCZ continues from 05n19w, 01n23w,
to the Equator along 27w, to 01s33w, and to 01s45w. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07n


Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is moving through the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico, passing through extreme se mississipi/SW Alabama,
the coastal sections of Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near
24n98w. A surface trough is about 75 nm to the ESE of the cold
front, from 25n to 29n. A warm front cuts across the Atlantic
Ocean that is immediately to the north of the NW Bahamas, passing
just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and beyond the Florida Big
Bend. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 24n northward 
from 90w eastward, including inland parts of South Florida.
Convective debris clouds are from 29n southward from 92w westward.

The cold front will reach from near Apalachicola to 25n90w and 
inland Mexico near Coatzacoalcos on Monday morning, from 
Apalachee Bay to 25n88w to Eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday 
evening, and from near Tampa Bay to 24n89w, and stationary to the
Eastern Bay of Campeche early on Tuesday. The cold front will 
move across the far se Gulf and Straits of Florida early on
Wednesday morning, then reach NW Cuba by late Wednesday night 
into early Thursday. The stationary part of the front remains 
from the Eastern Bay of Campeche to the NW Yucatan Peninsula.
Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front.
Another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the 
Texas coast early on Thursday. This next cold front is expected 
to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.

Caribbean Sea...

An upper level trough cuts across se Cuba to southern sections of
Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
are from 07n to 10n between 82w and 86w, in parts of western
Panama and southern Costa Rica, and in the coastal waters of
Panama and Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 05n to 11n between 79w and 86w,
including from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
in Colombia and Venezuela from 06n to 12n between 68w and 75w.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18n northward between
Puerto Rico and 80w.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-strong trade 
winds near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. Fresh-to- 
locally strong winds also are expected along the southern coast of
Hispaniola tonight through this morning. A weakening cold front 
will move southeastward across the Yucatan basin on Tuesday night,
and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea by Wednesday.

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front passes through 32n52w to 31n53w. A stationary front
continues from 31n53w to 28n60w, and to 27n78w. A warm front
continues from 27n78w, across South Florida, and beyond the
Florida Big Bend and the SW corner of Georgia. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that passes through 32n48w 27n60w 24n70w 23n80w.

An upper level trough extends from a 32n13w cyclonic circulation 
center, to the Canary Islands, to 18n40w. Upper level cyclonic 
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16n northward from 50w 

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10n northward
from the cold front/stationary front eastward. A 1031 mb high
pressure center is near 36n33w.

The current stationary front will lift northward through early 
Monday. Near gale-force southeast wind flow will be developing 
across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday and
Monday night, in association with a surface low pressure center
that will move eastward across the southeastern United States. 
The surface low pressure center will track northeastward along 
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday. The low center
will drag a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwestern 
waters during the middle of next week.

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