Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 121759

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC. 

...Special features...

...Gulf of Mexico gale...

A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Thu
and quickly reach the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then push 
se of the basin Fri night. Fresh to strong to near gale force 
northerly flow west of the front will increase to gale force on 
Thu evening over the northwest and west-central Gulf waters. 
Near gale force southerly flow expected east of the front on Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
hsfat2/fznt02 knhc for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08n13w to 04n22w. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01n34w to
00n46w near the coast of Brazil 01s46w. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along and within the ITCZ and monsoon trough
from 07n- 00n between 11w-48w. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough 05n-02s between

Gulf of Mexico...

A 1026 mb high pressure is centered over SW Alabama and the
northern Panhandle of FL, with a surface ridge extending across 
most of the Gulf. High, thick cirrus clouds are streaming into 
the western Gulf from Mexico. Latest observations show no 
precipitation accumulation has been observed with broken to 
overcast skies dominating the region. A moderate southeast
flow is seen in the latest observations continues across much the
northwest portion of the Gulf. 

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will precede a cold
front moving off the Texas coast early Thu with the front 
reaching from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Thu 
night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel on Fri and
moving E of area around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale force
northerly flow west of the front will increase to gale force on 
Thu evening over the northwest and west-central Gulf waters. Near 
gale force southerly flow expected east of the front on Fri. The 
pressure gradient will relax on Fri night and Sat with moderate 
west flow expected on Sat evening with seas subsided to less than 
8 ft throughout the Gulf by sunrise on sun.

Caribbean Sea...

a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20n78w to 
19n83w to a dissipating stationary front from that point to 
near 18n85w. Isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of 
the front. In the eastern Caribbean, isolated showers are seen 
near 14n68w just north of the ABC Islands. However, most of the 
eastern and southwestern Caribbean is relatively dry. Gentle to 
moderate trades winds are noted. Further west, moderate to fresh 
northeast winds are observed over the western Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the S-central 
Caribbean with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the 
northwest coast of Colombia. These strong trades will expand north
across the entire central Caribbean on Fri and Fri night. A 
frontal trough extending southwest from east Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras will drift west-northwest and gradually dissipate through
early Fri. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue 
west of the front through this evening. A cold front will enter 
the northwest Caribbean on Fri afternoon, and dissipate over the 
NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Large north swell will 
reach the leewards on Sat, and spread south through the northeast 
Atlantic passages during the upcoming weekend. 

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front extends from 31n58w to eastern Bahamas near 21n71w
into eastern Cuba near 21n76w. Scattered convection is noted to 
the south of 31n between 57w-50w associated to the front. A 1026 
mb ridge of high pressure extends from the Gulf of Mexico to 
27n58w and dominates the western Atlantic. Further east of the 
cold front, a 1026 mb ridge dominates most of the Basin. A weak
trough is noted at 25n35w. 

The cold front is forecast to begin drifting back north on Thu 
and extend east to west along 25n on Fri. Large seas, primarily 
due to northwest swell, across the waters North East of the 
Bahamas will subside from the west through Thu. A surface high 
near 30n78w will shift east-northeast passing northwest of Bermuda
on Thu setting up strong to near gale southerly return flow north
of the Bahamas on Thu night and Fri, ahead of another cold front 
that will sweep east across the northern waters during the 
upcoming weekend reaching a position from Bermuda to central Cuba 
on Sun night.

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