Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 120600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/120600z-130600zdec2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/120151zdec2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94w) previously located
near 9.0n 174.5e is now located near 9.7n 169.5e, approximately 120
nm east-northeast of kwajalein. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery, a 120407z 91ghz ssmis microwave image and a 112219z metop-a
ascat image depict a sharp wave with flaring convection over the
eastern periphery within the convergent tropical easterlies. Upper
level analysis shows moderate (15-25 knots) vertical wind shear and
good poleward outflow. SSTs remain favorable (28-30c) in the
equatorial Pacific. Dynamical models show weak development as the
system tracks west-northwestward with possible development in the
next two to three days. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1010 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 120000z, tropical cyclone 05p (owen) was located near
14.7s 137.5e, approximately 407 nm east-southeast of Darwin,
Australia, and had tracked westward at 4 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 45 knots
gusting to 55 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 120300) for further
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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