Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 210200
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/210200z-210600zfeb2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/201351zfeb2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/210151zfeb2017//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone final warning. Ref b is a tropical
/cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 201200z, tropical cyclone (tc) 06p (alfred) was located 
near 16.3s 137.5e, approximately 446 nm east-southeast of Darwin, 
Australia, and had tracked southward at 08 knots over the past six 
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 40 knots 
gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 201500) for the final 
warning on this system.
      (2) at 210000z, tropical cyclone (tc) 07p (seven) was located 
near 19.7s 166.6w, approximately 190 nm east of niue, and had 
tracked southeastward at 13 knots over the past six hours. Maximum 
sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to 45 
knots. See ref b (wtps32 pgtw 210300) for further details.
      (3) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 94p) has persisted near 
16.7s 179.2e, approximately 110 nm east-northeast of nadi, Fiji. 
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-
level circulation center (LLCC) with fragmented convective banding. 
A 202132z metop-a 89ghz image shows formative banding over the 
northern semi-Circle with shallow banding elsewhere. Surface 
observations at undu point (91652) show sustained northwesterly 
winds of 21 knots with a slp value of 1002.7mb. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for further development with good 
diffluence aloft, low vertical wind shear and warm SST. The global  
models indicate that the system will strengthen as it tracks east-
southeastward, away from Fiji. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1002 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: added tc 07p information in paragraph 
2.A.(2), added medium area in paragraph 2.B.(1) and updated 
paragraph 2.A.(1) to reflect final warning on tc 06p.//

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