Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 171300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/171300z-180600zfeb2019//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/170751zfeb2019//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 92w) previously located
near 2.2n 166.4e, is now located near 3.4n 166.5e, approximately 237
nm east-southeast of Kosrae. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery shows a flaring convection obscuring a consolidating low
level circulation (llc) with formative banding beginning to wrap in.
A 170712z windsat 37ghz shows a large area of convection extending
north from the llc with formative mid-level bandind. A 171040z metop-
b ascat pass shows an elongated circulation with a small swath of 20
knot wind barbs to the north of the llc. 92w is currently in a
favorable environment with excellent westward outflow, low (10 to 15
knot) vertical wind shear, and very warm (29 to 31 celsius) sea
surface temperatures. Global models are in good agreement that 92w
will track westward with minimal intensification before curving to
the north and beginning quicker intensification. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is upgraded to medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 170600z, tropical cyclone 15p (oma) was located near
16.1s 164.3e, approximately 249 nm west- northwest of Port Vila,
Vanuatu, and had tracked southward at 06 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 60 knots
gusting to 75 knots. See ref a (wtps31 pgtw 170900) for further
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to

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