Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 211800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/211800z-221800znov2017//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 10.8s 
111.8e, is now located near 11.1s 111.9e, approximately 670 nm north-
northwest of Learmonth, Australia. Animated enhanced infrared 
imagery depicts flaring convection with two fairly symmetrical 
convective bands wrapping into a low level circulation center 
(LLCC). Upper level analysis shows that 95s is under an area of low 
(5-10 knot) vertical wind shear with a formative anticyclone over 
the system. Sea surface temperatures are warm (28-29 celsius) and 
will support further development. Global dynamic models are split, 
with navgem and ECMWF favoring development by 241200z as 95s tracks 
further south.  Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 
to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
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