Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 121800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/121800z-131800zdec2018//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94b) previously located
near 5.5n 90.0e, is now located near 6.0n 89.5e, approximately 580
nm east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery shows a slowly consolidating low level circulation center
(LLCC) with persistent deep convection. Upper-level analysis
indicates moderate (15-25 knots) vertical wind shear, offset by good
poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures (28-30 celsius) in the
surrounding area remain favorable for development. Global model
generally agree on a northwest trajectory, but vary on the timing
and intensity. Models indicate the disturbance reaching tropical
strength with in the next 30-48 hours. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 91s) has persisted near 4.7s
93.3e, approximately 782 nm west-northwest of jakarta, Indonesia.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery show a disorganized low
level circulation (llc) with flaring convection. Environmental
analysis indicates low to moderate (15 to 25 knots) vertical wind
shear with light upper level outflow and supportive sea surface
temperatures (28-30 celsius). Global models are in overall good
agreement on a southwestward trajectory as the system gradually
develops over the next few days. Some track uncertainty exists, with
some models showing 91s remaining quasi-stationary for the first 6-
12 hours of the model run.  Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1007 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//
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