Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 231800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/231351zapr2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/230721zapr2018//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning. Ref b is a tropical
cyclone formation alert.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 231200z, tropical cyclone 20s (fakir) was located near
15.8s 52.9e, approximately 313 nm north-northwest of St Denis, La
Reunion, and had tracked southeastward at 14 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 40 knots
gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 231500) for further
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96s) previously located
near 5.3s 81.4e, is now located near 6.1s 81.6e, approximately 550
nm east of Diego Garcia. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery shows weak convection associated with the low level
circulation center (LLCC) of 96s. A 231301z 91ghz ssmis microwave
satellite image shows formative banding with areas of deep
convection located mainly to the east of the LLCC. Upper level
analysis shows favorable vertical wind shear (5 to 15 knots). 96s is
experiencing weak equatorward outflow and moderate poleward outflow.
Sea surface temperatures are favorable for development, between 29
to 30 degrees celsius. Numerical model guidance shows limited model
development over the next 24 hours with additional development
possible beyond 24 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are
estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated
to be near 1000 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.
See ref b (wtxs21 pgtw 230730) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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