- Day Three
acus02 kwns 171729
Storm Prediction Center ac 171728
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 am CST sun Feb 17 2019
Valid 181200z - 191200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Monday.
..synopsis and discussion...
An upper trough/low will remain over the Great Basin on Monday as
several shortwave troughs rotate around its center. One of these
troughs should amplify while moving slowly eastward from the lower
Colorado River valley across northern Mexico and Arizona/nm through the period.
Downstream shortwave ridging should also build across parts of the
plains into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. A surface cold front will move
quickly off the East Coast early in the period, while stalling over
the northern/central Florida Peninsula later in the day. A strong
mid-level inversion and only weak low-level forcing associated with
the front will likely limit convective potential across Florida through
Low-level moisture return above a shallow near-surface stable layer
will likely occur across parts of central/East Texas into the lower MS
valley late Monday ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave
trough over the southwest. Isentropic ascent associated with a 30-40
kt south-southeasterly low-level jet should encourage some
convective development across this region late in the period (mainly
after 19/06z). A few thunderstorms may occur on the leading edge of
the moisture return where low-level ascent is forecast to be
strongest. Enhanced mid and upper-level southwesterly flow will
support strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer. However, the
elevated instability that will develop is forecast to remain
generally weak, with MUCAPE less than 1000 j/kg. The potential for
elevated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail currently
appears too limited to include any severe probabilities.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none