U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 171729 
Storm Prediction Center ac 171728 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1128 am CST sun Feb 17 2019 

Valid 181200z - 191200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United 
States on Monday. 

..synopsis and discussion... 
An upper trough/low will remain over the Great Basin on Monday as 
several shortwave troughs rotate around its center. One of these 
troughs should amplify while moving slowly eastward from the lower 
Colorado River valley across northern Mexico and Arizona/nm through the period. 
Downstream shortwave ridging should also build across parts of the 
plains into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. A surface cold front will move 
quickly off the East Coast early in the period, while stalling over 
the northern/central Florida Peninsula later in the day. A strong 
mid-level inversion and only weak low-level forcing associated with 
the front will likely limit convective potential across Florida through 
the period. 

Low-level moisture return above a shallow near-surface stable layer 
will likely occur across parts of central/East Texas into the lower MS 
valley late Monday ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave 
trough over the southwest. Isentropic ascent associated with a 30-40 
kt south-southeasterly low-level jet should encourage some 
convective development across this region late in the period (mainly 
after 19/06z). A few thunderstorms may occur on the leading edge of 
the moisture return where low-level ascent is forecast to be 
strongest. Enhanced mid and upper-level southwesterly flow will 
support strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer. However, the 
elevated instability that will develop is forecast to remain 
generally weak, with MUCAPE less than 1000 j/kg. The potential for 
elevated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail currently 
appears too limited to include any severe probabilities. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Gleason.. 02/17/2019