U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Hodie
Tomorrow
Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 260029 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0729 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017 


Valid 260100z - 261200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
east-central New Mexico... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
enhanced risk area across parts of the southern rockies and southern 
High Plains... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms outside of the 
slight risk area across parts of the southern rockies and High 
Plains... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are expected 
across parts of central and eastern New Mexico into West Texas this 
evening. Isolated severe storms are possible in southern Colorado 
and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. 


..southern rockies/southern High Plains... 
The latest water vapor imagery shows northwest mid-level flow across 
the High Plains with a plume of moisture extending from the 
intermountain west southeastward into the southern High Plains. 
Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing along the eastern edge of this 
plume across east-central New Mexico and the western Texas and 
Oklahoma panhandles. Surface dewpoints across east-central and 
northeast New Mexico are in the upper 50s and lower 60s f with a 
pocket of moderate instability analyzed across this area by the rap. 
In addition, the WSR-88D vwp at Tucumcari, nm shows southerly winds 
at the surface veering to northerly at about 4 km above ground level with 40 kt of 
west-northwest flow in the upper-levels. This combined with steep 
mid-level lapse rates will support rotating storms and isolated 
large hail. As cells congeal across east-central New Mexico, a 
transition to linear Mode may take place over the next couple of 
hours. As a result, wind damage could become the greater threat in 
the mid evening as a line moves toward the New Mexico-Texas state 
line...see mesoscale discussion 1149. The severe threat should be increasingly 
marginal with southward extent into southern New Mexico and far West 
Texas where deep-layer shear is weaker than in areas to the north. 


.Broyles.. 06/26/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 252312 
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Mesoscale discussion 1149 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0612 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017 


Areas affected...southeast Colorado...eastern nm...northwest Texas/OK 
panhandles 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370... 


Valid 252312z - 260045z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 
continues. 


Summary...large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible across 
the entire watch area. Some very large hail (i.E. Greater than 2 
inches in diameter) and a tornado or two are also possible. Upscale 
growth into a convective line may eventually occur, enhancing the 
damaging wind threat. 


Discussion...regional radar imagery shows numerous severe 
thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern nm. Primary threat 
with these thunderstorms is large hail. Some very large hail (i.E. 
Greater than 2 inches in diameter) is also possible, particularly as 
a result of storm/boundary interactions. Continued upslope flow 
regime coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, steep mid-level lapse 
rates, and moderate/strong bulk shear will favor continued 
strong/severe thunderstorm development across eastern nm. Primary 
threat for the next hour or two will remain large hail, although 
some damaging wind gusts are also possible. Eventually, some cold 
pool amalgamation/upscale growth is anticipated, with the 
northwesterly mean flow favoring southeastward propagation into 
east-central nm and the adjacent west-central portions of the Texas 
Panhandle. Northern extent of the eventual convective line will 
likely be demarcated by the southwestward progressing outflow 
boundary emanating from the discrete supercell that move through 
Baca County Colorado and is currently moving through Cimarron County OK. 
Very large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible with this 
supercell as it tracks southward along a remnant outflow boundary. 
Boundary interactions may also contribute to increased tornado 
potential with this supercell as well as other storms across the 
region. 


.Mosier.. 06/25/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...ddc...lub...Ama...maf...pub...abq...epz... 


Latitude...Lon 32910637 37850409 37840117 32910357 32910637