U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 160100 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160059 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Valid 160100z - 161200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion 
of the middle Atlantic and northeast states... 

An isolated storm or two with gusty winds remains possible through 
mid evening over a portion of the middle Atlantic into the coastal 

..middle Atlantic through the coastal northeast... 

Evening radiosonde observation data show very little instability (mlcape below 100 
j/kg) with northward extent into northeast states. Frontogenetic 
forcing will increase this evening over the northeast U.S. Along the 
advancing cold front as a surface low deepens over southeast Canada 
in response to ascent within exit region of a progressive upper jet. 
Have maintained a small marginal risk category for the possibility a 
narrow, low-topped convective line capable of a few strong wind 
gusts where the best overlap of frontal forcing and weak instability 
is expected. 

.Dial.. 10/16/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 150430 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 150430 

Mesoscale discussion 1585 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1130 PM CDT sun Oct 14 2018 

Areas affected...northeast Texas 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415... 

Valid 150430z - 150500z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415 

Summary...although locally strong winds and small hail cannot be 
ruled out with the remaining storms advancing across the small valid 
portion of ww 415, this watch should be allowed to expire as 
scheduled at 05z as the overall convective trends weaken. 

Discussion...trends in radar imagery and lightning data with the 
convection across northeast Texas indicated a substantial decrease in 
intensity and coverage, respectively. This is likely due to the 
increasing influence of strengthening surface-based inhibition, and 
these trends will continue to limit the severe-weather threat into 
the overnight. 

.Peters.. 10/15/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 32829530 33219461 32399467 32169496 32129536 32829530