Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kakq 241049
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia
649 am EDT Sat Jun 24 2017
a cold front crosses the local area today. The front stalls over
the Carolinas for Sunday and Monday. Otherwise...high pressure
builds into the local area from Sunday through mid next week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
quite warm/humid attm over the forecast area W/ gusty SW winds to 20-30 kt.
Remnant circulation of Cindy passing by north of the forecast area...invof
Mason-Dixon line. That circulation exits the coast of New Jersey later
this morning. Its associated/trailing cold front will be
entering/crossing the forecast area today...slowing down at it presses into
southeast Virginia-NE NC this afternoon. Split in rainfall occurring over the
forecast area attm...will have lo pops for most areas through about
13-15z/24 (esp east of I 95). Watching narrow line of tstms
tracking east through west central NC...if hold together...may affect
NE NC. Early this morning.
Drying/lowering of dewpoints on west winds expected over at least
northwest 1/2 of forecast area during today. Per usual...drying likely to be
delayed near the coast/over southeast Virginia-NE NC as the cold front slows
down over that area this afternoon. Averaging out partly sunny
over the forecast area today (maybe a little better northwest 1/2). Enough
instability W/ the front invof the area for inclusion of
isolated/scattered tstms to possibly develop over far srn-southeast Virginia/NE
NC...mainly after 21z/24. Highs today in the u80s-l90s...even at
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the
front for tonight and Sunday...resulting in a pleasant end to
the weekend wx-wise. Lows tonight in the l60 northwest...M-u60s
inland...l70s southeast. Dewpoints will lower into the l60s northwest to
l70s far southeast. Any convection southeast wanes tonight...W/ any lingering
spotty rain along the Albemarle Sound coming to an end Sun
morning. Meanwhile...the rest of the local area will remain dry.
A much more comfortable afternoon and evening sun...W/ highs in
the M-u80s (l80s beaches)...and dewpoints in the u50s northwest to
m60s southeast. Comfortable wx Sun night with lows in the u50s northwest to
Secondary cold front approaches from the west-northwest Mon...entering the
(nw portions of the) local area in the evening. Will result in
conditions becoming partly cloudy...and would not rule isolated
shras far north late in the day. Highs in the l80s (u70s at the
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
the secondary cold front crosses the area Mon night. Isolated shras
possible near the coast (esp on the eastern shore)...otherwise
the fropa should be dry due to a lack of significant moisture.
Cooler temps then for Tue with highs only in the mid/upr 70s
most areas. Sfc high pres builds directly over the area Tue
night/Wed behind a mid- level trough pushing offshore. Dry again
for Thu as the high slides offshore allowing for S/SW to
develop across the mid Atlc and temps to Max out in the mid 80s.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
periods of MVFR cigs through mid morning...except at ric W/
gusty SW winds to 30-35 kt...becoming less gusty by late morning
into the afternoon. The remnant circulation of Cindy exiting the
New Jersey coast this morning...its associated/trailing cold front
crosses the local area today/this evening. Narrow bands of shras
W/ brief downpours to east of sby by 13z.
The cold front to settle across southeast Virginia-NE NC this evening...W/
possible isolated-scattered shras or tstms after 21-23z/24 invof
orf/ecg. With such lo prob attm...will only carry vcsh and broken
ceilings aoa 5kft for now. VFR conditions sun-early next week as
high pressure builds back into the region.
no changes to Small Craft Advisory headlines this morning. Gusty SW winds 15-25kt
W/ gusts to 30kt will continue thru mid/late morning before
diminishing to 10-15 kt this afternoon. Seas 3-4ft currently will
build to 4-5 ft south/5-6 ft north around daybreak, then gradually
subside back below 5 ft by late morning south and later this
afternoon north. An extended period of benign marine conditions is
then expected from tonight through the middle of next week. Winds
become north/northwest around 10 kt behind a cold front tonight/Sunday morning,
then variable less than 10 kt later Sunday into Monday. Waves 1-2 ft
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over coastal waters.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for anz633-
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for anz650-