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twdep
Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu may 24 2012
Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n...east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.
...Special feature...
Tropical Storm Bud is centered at 14.2n 107.9w as of 24/0300 UTC
moving NW at 05 kt. Estimated minimal central pressure continues
to drop and is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has
increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Latest satellite imagery
show that Bud is continuing to organize with the overall cloud
pattern becoming more symmetrical and what appears to be central
dense overcast feature. Banding features noted earlier over the
eastern semicircle have recently tightly reformed around
the center. Numerous strong convection is within 75 nm of the
center in the se quadrant. Scattered strong convection is
elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant...90 nm
se quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center in the SW and 90 nm NW quadrants.
A low shear upper environment has allowed Bud to gather
intensity since Tue evening. The 03 UTC NHC advisory has Bud
intensifying into a minimal hurricane by early Thu morning...
then intensify only slightly through early Thu evening as it
turns NE. It is then expected that environmental conditions
becomes less supportive of it strengthening any further...and
so it is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm by early
Fri evening. See latest tropical cyclone advisory wtpz22/tcmep2
knhc for further details on Tropical Storm Bud.
...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...monsoon
trough extends from 12n109w to 07n122w...where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 05n131w to beyond 04n140w. No significant
convection is noted.
...Discussion...
aloft...an anticyclone is situated over the W semicircle of Bud
with a ridge NW to near a col region at 26n126w. Two large
upper level anticyclones are just to the W and NW of the
discussion area in a Rex block type pattern are allowing for a
somewhat stagnant upper pattern over the NW and N central
portions of the area. A mid to upper trough extends from far NW
Mexico WSW to near 26n121w. This trough will be replaced by a
more pronounced swd digging trough along from along the W coast
of the U.S. And into the far NE portion of the area within the
next 48 hrs forcing the Rex block to shift more to the W.
Moderate subsidence allowing for limited atmospheric is noted
over much of the area except along and in the vicinity of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough and Tropical Storm Bud.
At the surface...a 1034 mb surface high pres is located NW of the
area at 36n145w with a ridge se to 25n130w to near 21n123w. The
pres difference between the ridge and low pres over the SW U.S.
And Gulf of California is allowing for NW-N winds of 20-25 kt
to be N of 20n between 118w and 133w. NE 20 kt winds are on the
srn periphery of the ridge between 28n and a line from 20n124w
to 16n130w to 06n140w. The high center is forecast to move NW
over the next 24-48 hours with the area of N to N winds also
shifting N...and is forecast to be N of 26n between 118w and
130w.
N swells originating from a gale wind area just N of the NE
portion of the area will propagate S along the California
coast...with 9 to 13 ft possibly reaching as far S as 21n
between 118w and 130w in 24 hours...then be confined to N of
26n E of 124w in 48 hours. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N swells
are forecast to within the area N of 21n E of 124w in about
48 hours.
Winds may become SW to S 20 to 25 kt over the far nrn portion
of the Gulf of California through Fri evening as the pres
gradient tightens between a stationary trough over the Gulf and
high pres over the N central Pacific.
$$
Aguirre
