TerraNova's WunderBlog

September 28, 2008 – 1:30 PM EDT

Good afternoon everyone. This Sunday morning the basin is presenting to us one named storm and two other possible threat areas, one which has been designated as an invest. Although wind shear does appear to be back on the rise in the basin the season isn't even close to being over yet, and it wouldn't surprise me to see another 5-6 named storms before November is out and done with. We're getting to the time of year now where shear in the North and East Atlantic generally begins to climb to unfavorable levels, and late-season storms generally develop in the Caribbean, Gulf, or off the Southeast US Coast (October Climatology).

Hurricane Kyle appears to be weakening as landfall in the Canadian Maritimes nears.
According to the 11:00 AM advisory, Hurricane Kyle was located about 165 SSE of Nantucket Island with maximum sustained winds clocked by a Recon mission at 80 mph. Kyle is racing off to the NNE at 24 mph in response to a rapidly accelerating southwesterly flow. This speed generally causes problems for a system's circulation and indeed it does appear that Kyle is suffering from a combination of wind shear, stable air, and excessive forward speed. Findings from a reconnaissance mission indicated that Kyle's 700mb center was displaced from the surface vortex and nearly all surface winds above 50 knots were located to the northeast of Kyle's disorganized core (AOML). Buoy 44011, east of the center, is reporting sustained winds of about 40 mph while 44008, located on the system's western portion put comparatively closer to the core, is reporting winds at only 20 mph. 11L's hurricane status is questionable due to wind shear undercutting the circulation and removing significant winds from the system's south, however, the initial intensity of 80 mph was kept due to heavy convection to the north of the center. Kyle has been captured by a southwest slanted shortwave, accelerating the system to the NNE and increasing the flow out behind it. It is not out of the question that Kyle's low and mid level centers could completely decouple prior to landfall.

Heavy rain has spread through Massachusetts and Maine. I'm even feeling the effects of Kyle myself here in New Jersey; as a trough over the eastern US is advecting moisture from Kyle and producing showers over the Mid Atlantic states. Although the heaviest rains with Kyle himself remain east of Cape Cod, a small convective eddy noted on radar imagery is moving towards Cape Cod/Nantucket, which should bring heavier rains to the Cape area shortly. Rainfall totals are near 5 inches in portions of E Mass., with locally higher amounts.

In a nutshell...Kyle is expected to make landfall between SW Nova Scotia and S New Brunswick, or somewhere in the vicinity of the Bay of Fundy on Monday. Shear has risen to above 20 knots over the circulation and even higher shear is present to the north; therefore, all of the reliable models (spaghetti chart) as well as the official forecast have Kyle weakening to a tropical storm before landfall in Canada. In addition, Kyle will be moving out of the warm 26C+ waters of the Gulf current into 16-17C waters within a matter of hours. Kyle should continue into the Bay of Lawrence as an extratropical system and dissipate somewhere over Newfoundland later this week.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- Coast of Maine from Stonington E to Eastport, Maine
- SW Nova Scotia


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Stonington E to Eastport, Maine
- S New Brunswick
- SW Nova Scotia


A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Remainder of Nova Scotia

95L Invest was designated earlier this morning and appears to be getting more organized.
According to the GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) a large non-tropical low situated about 650 miles WSW of the Azores has increased in organization throughout the night and appears to be taking on some tropical characteristics; moving to the west at a relatively slow speed compared to Kyle. Satellite imagery indicates that heavier convection has fired around and closer to 95L's well-defined center, and although dry air is present around portions of the circulation, a fairly massive upwelling of CAPE and Theta-E due to the system's deepening low (currently at 993 hPa) and an ULH should aid in further development. 95L, while currently located over waters cooler than the limit for tropical genesis (26.5C), will be moving over 26-27C waters in the North Atlantic. An LLC obviously exists beyond all reasonable doubt, and if 95L can become more compact and continue to generate convection it will likely be designated as a named system sometime before the middle portion of the week. Models, for the most part, are in agreement on a curvature to the north before this can affect land. However, it's not out of the question that the Island of Newfoundland might experience the outer fringes of this thing's large wind field later this week.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is struggling to organize due to land interaction but could pose a threat in the near future, as far as development goes.
Surface analyses and buoy observations indicate that pressures around the Yucatan, especially off the coast of Belize, are rather low. Satellite imagery revealed what I take as a large, severely disrupted rotation centered directly over the Yucatan. Shear is rather high, with a ULH centered over Belize causing 20-30 knots of zonal flow over the W Caribbean and extreme Southern Gulf. Development is unlikely until this manages to center itself offshore and move away from land, but there is the possibility of a Barry-type system heading NNE or NE towards Cuba and Florida later this week. Most of the reliable models forecast shear to relax past 36 hours all through the NE Gulf as the ULH weakens and high pressure builds in back to the north after Kyle's passage, and I'm thinking that any significant development will occur in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Anyhow, whatever develops here will bring heavy rainfall to Florida and continue to bring the threat of flash flooding all the way from the Yucatan south to Honduras.

Tropical cyclone development is possible in the North Atlantic from 95L Invest. Elsewhere, TC genesis is not anticipated through 30 hours.


(Figure 1) Kyle's location and track projected on a map of SST's. Legend at bottom is in Centigrade (C). As of 11 AM.


(Figure 2) NHC's summary of the two other threat areas with satellite imagery.