Skyepony's WunderBlog

Wabit I don't see any plans to fly Katia yet. Looks like AF308 is leaving ST Croix & flying toward the GOM or they are just exercising her.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°17'N 91°35'W (27.2833N 91.5833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 205 miles (329 km) to the S (172°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 16kts (~ 18.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 223° at 15kts (From the SW at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:11:30Z

AF306 is going home from Lee. Gonzo is chuckin sondes so far from SEFL to the SW Gulf of Mexico (BOC). Not sure where AF308 ended up. The reading just ended at 8,000' headed west.

LEE has weakened a touch with the day, still a weak Tropical Storm.

AF306 just got in Lee flying 5000'. Gonzo is zig zagging west to east across the N Gulf of Mexico chuckin dropsondes.


That's horrid Wabit, freeze all winter & now cook. My high was 88.5ºF. The day ended with some nice pony riding weather. The garden will have to wait.

Everyone is being told to take shelter from weather at the Phish show in Denver, CO.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 00:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 23:57:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°15'N 91°19'W (28.25N 91.3167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 141 miles (227 km) to the SSW (213°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,430m (4,692ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 39kts (From the SE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:40:20Z

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°40'N 92°06'W (28.6667N 92.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) to the S (182°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 45kts (From the ENE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (143°) from the flight level center


Phish show was awesome. Second set they played all S songs. Best "Scents & Suddle Sounds (colors in the void)"...I've heard yet. Ended with best Sabotage ever.

Lee TRMM pass, click for animation..lotta rain.

Rain totals

Finn~ It's giving us some beautiful weather.

AF307 flew out to Lee made this one fix is now flying around in a bunch of little circles SSE of the fix..


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 12:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 12:00:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°58'N 91°52'W (28.9667N 91.8667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 87 miles (140 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,367m (4,485ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 33kts (From the SSE at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,624m (5,328ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:53:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center


Guy~I should chack all I planted today. Not only did that last planting go well with the moom, the weather was perfect for it.

I get wheat seeds in bulk at Nature's Supermarket for Winter Rye. It can be a great way to save when mass planting.

For the Amaranth I started with the mixed variety & planted in the spring..so they could experience the worst. I had one survivor, looks to be of the golden variety. I planted a few seeds from that one small survivor. What resulted it large & bountiful, accustom to the abuse it might expect here. I need to gather some of those this morning. I'll try & save you some seed.

& by mulch I meant come get some compost..bugs hate perfectly fed plants.


It's Labor Day weekend...Free for all at the compost pile..Neighbors, friends, regulars, anyone thinking of starting a garden...come & get it.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:13:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°05'N 92°16'W (29.0833N 92.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (128 km) to the S (190°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,355m (4,446ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 151 nautical miles (174 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 32kts (From the SW at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:14:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (80°) from the flight level center

Lee relocated a bit to the south & then has nudged NNE since.

2011SEP03 191500 2.5 1005.0/ +0.0 / 35.0 2.1 2.4 2.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 8.94 -20.49 SHEAR N/A 29.48 91.75 FCST
2011SEP03 194500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 0.5T/hour ON OFF -12.96 -18.68 CRVBND N/A 29.51 91.74 FCST
2011SEP03 201500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF -15.56 -18.60 CRVBND N/A 29.53 91.74 FCST
2011SEP03 204500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF -2.46 -16.62 CRVBND N/A 29.55 91.73 FCST
2011SEP03 211500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF 7.74 -18.06 SHEAR N/A 29.41 92.10 FCST
2011SEP03 214500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.84 -15.74 SHEAR N/A 29.44 92.09 FCST
2011SEP03 221500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF 13.44 -14.45 SHEAR N/A 29.46 92.08 FCST
2011SEP03 224500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.04 -15.97 SHEAR N/A 29.48 92.07 FCST
2011SEP03 231500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 16.34 -12.47 SHEAR N/A 29.51 92.06 FCST


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:13:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°05'N 92°16'W (29.0833N 92.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (128 km) to the S (190°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,355m (4,446ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 151 nautical miles (174 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 32kts (From the SW at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:14:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (80°) from the flight level center

Wab~ I was cooler than you again today.

If the weather doesn't come around food is going to sky rocket.

I made pizza tonight. 1/5 the grain & about everything else besides the cheese, came right out of the garden.

This wave that just come off Africa killed 102 in Nigeria.

With Lee overland recon has been called off.

Tonight's Phish show ended up with Sleeping Monkey & Freezer. Lastnight's show, after everyone on twitter was like wow the whole second s set... I had to wonder how many others wolk up the next morning to realize every song lastnight was an "S" song.

Set 1: Sample in a Jar, Sparkle, The Sloth, Sweet Virginia, Suskind Hotel, Strange Design, Stash, Sneakin' Sally through the Alley > Sparks > Scent of a Mule, Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan, Shine a Light, Split Open and Melt, The Squirming Coil

Set 2: Sand > Simple -> Steam > Soul Shakedown Party -> Seven Below > Suzy Greenberg > Scents and Subtle Sounds > Slave to the Traffic Light > Silent in the Morning > Sanity, Sweet Adeline

Encore: Sabotage

Notes: This show was brought to you by the letter "S." Sparks was played for the first time since November 29, 1996 (463 shows). Sweet Adeline was played for the first time since August 1, 1999 (285 shows). Sabotage was played for the first time since November 21, 1998 (318 shows). Scents did not have the intro.

Wab~ No injuries. I think it was due to lightning. The storms didn't look too bad just alot of lightning.

Glad ya'll got a reprieve. The sun startled me the other night, it was setting so far to the south. I'm gonna miss summer..

Morning all..

Wabit~ Was it enough to save the corn?

Aqua~~ I missed that on Sirrus~ Not surprised by the studio favs. There is such a range, many have never seen it live & just thrived on the albums.. I did this through college for fear of not coming back to school like so many others..last seen really excited to be heading off to their first show, only to be seen months later to clear out their stuff between tours.

Had to compare model verification on Lee..especially where the GFNI stood..


Model error for Lee in nm.
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr
GFNI 0 70.5 75.4 -
GFDI 0 62.5 63.3 63.6
GFDL 18.0 42.9 62.7 77.9
GFDN 7.9 52.1 55.8 -
CMC 24.3 56.8 73.9 108.4
EGRR 24.7 52.6 90.8 -
AVNO 28.2 43.3 51.4 48.6
BAMD - 65.8 73.5 84.8
BAMM - 59.5 97.4 155.6
BAMS - 81.0 154.5 248.4
AEMN 26.9 61.2 97.8 118.2
HWRF 21.4 70.3 85.1 138.3
LBAR 0 66.2 97.3 85.5
LGEM 0 58.7 62.8 126.0
NAM 28.0 71.0 41.8 48.5

Bogon~ Chances are good..The forecast for rain keeps going up there at my farm in WNC...up to 11 inches.

Hey everyone 95L is new. It's not long off Africa. It's the one that caused all the trouble in Nigeria.

Fresh partial WINDSAT of 95L.


Went to Indialantic Beach. Waves were beautiful. There was surfers & a guy on a paddle board. Saw a few near 9'. Big surf.

MLB NWS
ALSO NOTE: THERE WAS A DEATH IN THE SURF ZONE ON LABOR DAY NEAR
ORMOND BEACH. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE KATIA WILL
CONTINUE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES
INTO LATE WEEK.

Ormond Beach is having a bad year for drownings.


Gardening~ got a bunch of weeds & grass tore out of the north garden yesterday. Found some strawberry babies that had escaped the pots, 2 starfruit seedlings, I think an elder & some grapes. I'm trying the grapes on the west fence to help shade strawberries.

Aqua~ It so is as it should be. I water my garden all summer & make a few small plantings, mostly directly in to the garden. Vacation, hide from the heat..there is some tough heat lovin stuff out there right now that thrived on tough love & no fertilizer. It's fun to pull that layer of protective grass & weeds when it cools slightly in Sept..See what seedlings remain from spring's good intent, what's hardy enough to face your worse abuse.

Did you give the okra bonemeal? & the forecast rain on the QPF took a dive..good call.

Taco~ Thanks!

Code~ Nice to know someones tomatoes are doing well. I think you get to plant snow peas in fall.

Wabit~ You have been having crazy weather. Don't follow any urges to dig a burrow..it's too early:)

{{FINN}}~ I love the direction they've taken with the photo side. It's how I leaned when I moderated photos..a big lean toward weather.. with a bias to rainbows (they are on the logo right?). I always liked how Masters includes them in his blog.

96L is new..

Aub~ Good to see you had some fun weather without damage. There was so many rotating clouds when the T-wave that became Lee was here. That storm was something to look at.

Wab~ Can't believe it's so cold..

I have the possible BOC disturbance mentioned in my local weather up top. It's nice being caught in the moisture. Had some rain earlier 0.07"..hoping for more.

& 95L became Tropical Depression 14 (14L).

There isn't a floater on 96L yet.