Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 04:24 PM GMT die 26o February, anno 2008

Share this Blog
2
+

Are tornadoes and severe thunderstorms getting more numerous and more extreme due to climate change? To help answer this question, let's restrict our attention to the U.S., which has the highest incidence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms of any place in the world. At a first glance, it appears that tornado frequency has increased in recent decades (Figure 1).


Figure 1. The number of EF-0 (blue line) and EF-1 and stronger tornadoes (maroon diamonds) reported in the U.S. since 1950. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. According to Brooks (2013), "Tornadoes in the early part of the official National Weather Service record (1950-approximately 1975) are rated with higher ratings than the 1975 - 2000 period, which, in turn, had higher ratings than 2001 - 2007." Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Image credit: Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499–514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

However, this increase may be entirely caused by factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, has resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.

Given these uncertainties in the tornado data base, it is unknown how the frequency of tornadoes might be changing over time. The "official word" on climate science, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, stated it thusly: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms." Furthermore, we're not likely to be able to develop methods to improve the situation in the near future.The current Doppler radar system can only detect the presence of a parent rotating thunderstorm that often, but not always, produces a tornado. Until a technology is developed that can reliably detect all tornadoes, there is no hope of determining how tornadoes might be changing in response to a changing climate. According to Doswell (2007): I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future.

Are strong tornadoes increasing?
Stronger tornadoes (greater than EF-0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or F0 on the pre-2007 Fujita Scale) are more likely to get counted, since they tend to cause significant damage along a long track. Thus, the climatology of these tornadoes may offer a clue as to how climate change may be affecting severe weather. Unfortunately, we cannot measure the wind speeds of a tornado directly, except in very rare cases when researchers happen to be present with sophisticated research equipment. Tornadoes are categorized using the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which is based on damage (note that the EF scale to rate tornadoes was adopted in 2007, but the transition to this new scale still allows valid comparisons of tornadoes rated, for example, EF-5 on the new scale and F-5 on the old scale.) So, if a strong tornado happens to sweep through empty fields and never destroy any structures, it will never be rated as a strong tornado. Thus, if the number of strong tornadoes has actually remained constant over the years, we should expect to see some increase in these twisters over the decades, since more buildings have been erected in the paths of tornadoes. However, if we look at the statistics of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 or F-0 since 1950, there does not appear to be any increase in their number. Not surprisingly, a study accepted for publication in Environmental Hazards (Simmons et al., 2012) found no increase in tornado damages from 1950 - 2011, after normalizing the data for increases in wealth and property (note, though, that I am suspicious of studies that normalize disaster data, since they are prone to error, as revealed by a 2012 study looking at storm surge heights and damages.)

The future of tornadoes
An alternate technique to study how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. Moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear are needed for tornadic thunderstorms to form. The exact mix required varies considerably depending upon the situation, and is not well understood. However, Brooks (2003) attempted to develop a climatology of weather conditions conducive for tornado formation by looking at atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and the amount of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. High values of CAPE and surface to 6 km wind shear are conducive to formation of tornadic thunderstorms. The regions they analyzed with high CAPE and high shear for the period 1997-1999 did correspond pretty well with regions where significant (F2 and stronger) tornadoes occurred. The authors plan to extend the climatology back in time to see how climate change may have changed the large-scale conditions conducive for tornado formation. Riemann-Campe et al. (2009) found that globally, CAPE increased significantly between 1958 - 2001. However, little change in CAPE was found over the Central and Eastern U.S. during spring and summer during the most recent period they studied, 1979 - 2001. A preliminary report issued by NOAA’s Climate Attribution Rapid Response Team in July 2011 found no trends in CAPE or wind shear over the lower Mississippi Valley over the past 30 years. However, preliminary work by J. Sander of Munich Re insurance company, presented at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, found that the number of days with very high CAPE values over the eastern two-thirds of the United States between 1970 and 2009 did increase significantly.

Del Genio et al.(2007) used a climate model with doubled CO2 to show that a warming climate would make the atmosphere more unstable (higher CAPE) and thus prone to more severe weather. However, decreases in wind shear offset this effect, resulting in little change in the amount of severe weather in the Central and Eastern U.S. late this century. The speed of updrafts in thunderstorms over land increased by about 1 m/s in their simulation, though, since upward moving air needed to travel 50-70 mb higher to reach the freezing level. As a result, the most severe thunderstorms got stronger. In the Western U.S., the simulation showed that drying led lead to fewer thunderstorms, but the strongest thunderstorms increased in number by 26%, leading to a 6% increase in the total amount of lighting hitting the ground each year. If these results are correct, we might expect more lightning-caused fires in the Western U.S. late this century, due to enhanced drying and more lightning.

Using a high-resolution regional climate model (25 km grid size) zoomed in on the U.S., Trapp et al. (2007) and Trapp et al. (2009) found that the decrease in 0-6 km wind shear in the late 21st century would more than be made up for by an increase in instability (CAPE). Their model predicted an increase in the number of days with high severe storm potential for almost the entire U.S., by the end of the 21st century. These increases were particularly high for many locations in the Eastern and Southern U.S., including Atlanta, New York City, and Dallas (Figure 3). Cities further north and west such as Chicago saw a smaller increase in the number of severe weather days.


Figure 3. Number of days per year with high severe storm potential historically (blue bars) and as predicted by the climate model (A2 scenario) of Trapp et al. 2007 (red bars).

Summary
We currently do not know how tornadoes and severe thunderstorms may be changing due to changes in the climate, nor is there hope that we will be able to do so in the foreseeable future. At this time, it does not appear that there has been an increase in U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 in recent decades. Preliminary research using climate models suggests that we may see an increase in the number of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes over the U.S. late this century. However, this research is just beginning, and much more study is needed to confirm these findings.

References
Brooks, H.E., 2013, "Severe thunderstorms and climate change," Atmospheric Research, Volume 123, 1 April 2013, Pages 129–138, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002.

Brooks, H.E., J.W. Lee, and J.P. Craven, 2003, "The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data", Atmospheric Research Volumes 67-68, July-September 2003, Pages 73-94.

Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).

Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007,
Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.

Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499–514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.

Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.

Simmons, K.M., Dutter, D., and Pielke, R., 2012, "Normalized Tornado Damage in the United States: 1950-2011," DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2012.738642

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Gluhovsky, A., 2009, "Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations," Geophysical Research Letters, 36(1).

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 293 - 243

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

293. BahaHurican
08:37 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Afternoon, everybody.

283. atmoaggie 12:10 PM EST on February 29, 2008
Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.

Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)


They prolly figured he was using too much bandwidth to DL all the pictures . . .. LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20733
292. Floodman
06:07 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
I'm sort of checking in every now and again, cchs...how have you been?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
291. cchsweatherman
06:05 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Anybody around now or is everyone at lunch? I'm surfing the net and eating lunch at the same time right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
290. Floodman
05:50 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
One last thing before I go to lunch...try this story on for size:

Conspiracy theory in the frozen North

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
289. Floodman
05:46 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Patrap, I forget: are you in New Orleans?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
288. Floodman
05:24 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)


Hmmm...there's a concept; maybe the proxy filters for words like raw weather, naked swirls, or maybe even stiff winds
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
287. Floodman
05:19 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
I'm with you, sullivan; unfortunately, we're going to see a lot more of the same (unpredictable weather) and it will only get worse...call it what you will, but there's some Climate Change in the air (now don't anyone go off half-cocked) and we won't see it normalize in our lifetimes, I'm afraid...if your area is known for roller coaster weather, get used to it
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
286. Patrap
05:11 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
All things must pass..winter included.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
285. sullivanweather
05:10 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
I'm done with the snow when it stops snowing...lol

Meaning that I'll take the snow as it comes straight into April. But once we start getting a snowstorm with a couple of rainstorms in between during the end of March I get ready for spring and want to start putting my gardens in the ground. It's the back and forth that I can't stand. It's like make up your mind on which season you want it to be already...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
284. Floodman
05:09 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Storm, I've been busier than a one armed paper hanger (to use a worn out cliche). I've been healthy, just not a lot of time and a lot of things to get done. How have you been?

Sorry about the tranny; what kind of vehicle we talking about?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
283. atmoaggie
05:10 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.

Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
282. Floodman
05:07 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Man, that's weather...I love places like San Diego to visit, but I like some wind in my face and some extremes as well; give me New England or the mid west.

That having been said, I'm sure you guys are pretty much done with winter by now; it grows a little tedious, huh?

In St Louis in '89 the average December temp was 19 degrees and the we got 29 inches of snow, followed by a January much the same with another 20 or so inches of snow; as much as I like winter, I was pretty much done with it by my birthday (February 3rd)...oddly enough, it snowed on my birthday that year as well...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
281. cchsweatherman
05:06 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Good afternoon all! Benn quite some time since last I've been on here. I hope everyone has been doing well.

Just wanted to let you all know that I have update my site. I have begun entering information into my Weather 101 page with basic weather knowledge and answers to commonly asked questions that I receive.

Also, my first ever 2008 Hurricane Season predictions will be published sometime next week with a detailed explanation and current analysis of the Atlantic basin.

Still having trouble creating a graphic to use in my forecast discussion on my National Weather page, so I have not updated that yet.

Well, just wanted to let you all know that and to check up on you all. I'll be watching the computer models for where this low will travel and how far south it goes. That will be the determining factor for severe weather and how cold it gets for South and Central Florida.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
279. NEwxguy
05:02 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
after this winter,this is one guy who will welcome discussions on the tropics again.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
278. NEwxguy
04:56 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
snowstorm tonight and tomorrow morning 4-8 inches,then a warmup next week with rain tuesday night and wednesday,this has been winter this year.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
277. NEwxguy
04:54 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Flood,
We've had snow on the ground since 2nd week of Dec. with a few days of bare ground occasionally,northern new england a ton of snow,we've had snow then a rain storm then a snow storm around the boston area.Set all time precipitation records for February

Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
276. Floodman
04:53 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
See? That's why I always enjoyed the freedom of being part of the IT staff...no blocks, I have to test this stuff!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
275. sullivanweather
04:52 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Bonedog's job put some type of block on this site.

Jerks!!
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
274. Floodman
04:45 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
NEWx, you look to be getting the kind of weather I've been missing...send me some pics, huh?

Where's Bone these days?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
273. Floodman
04:43 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Weather orm for Texas...except anything and everything...haha

I'm from Missouri, so "Don't like the weather? Stick around for an hour" is definitely in my vernacular...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
272. Floodman
04:41 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Wie gehts, taistelutipu! It's very good to be seen...I'll be in and out over the course of the day, so hopefully I'll see you later on...enjoy your meeting (if such a thing is possible)!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
271. sullivanweather
04:41 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
LOL

Weather orm for Texas...except anything and everything...haha
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
270. NEwxguy
04:40 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Flood,
Your an example of the whole 48 states,the La Nina really has all of us on wild roller coaster ride.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
269. Floodman
04:39 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
There's a pretty good temp gradient Sunday into Monday (from highs in the upper 70s to highs in the low 50s) and the locals are calling for a fairly substantial rain event; hopefully this is an indication of things to come. We just moved here in June of '07, so I don't know the weather norms very well for here...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
268. sullivanweather
04:33 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Well, Flood, if everything works out according to the models you should be getting in on some wetter weather with those two storms for next week. Both appear to originate from full latitude trough and both bring a pretty good chunk of cold air down your direction.

I'm sure a percentage of this is just simply model over-amplification but I'm also sure that you should see some sort of weather other than dryness.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
267. NEwxguy
04:30 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Heavy Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...
FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...
AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...
AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...
WEARE
1026 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 12 PM EST SATURDAY...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EST SATURDAY.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND NORTH AND WEST OF ROUTE 128...
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING...
REACHING NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR.

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS
TURNPIKE TO THE ROUTE 128 CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO
8 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS
NORTH INTO THE MONADNOCKS.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.


NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
266. taistelutipu
04:27 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Good evening, Flood :-) Wie geht's? Haven't seen you here for a while. I have a meeting in half an hour so I have to be on my way but I'll peep in later tonight. See you!

Thanks for asking the simple questions, surfmom, and thanks for answering, StormW, it helps also other people on the blog :)
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
265. Floodman
04:26 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Patrap, the pleasure is all mine...you stayiong healthy? You scard us there in the fall, you know
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
264. Floodman
04:25 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
The usual roller coaster of Texas weather...80 degrees one day, and 35 the next. I'l be honest with you, I'm really strating to miss the occasional snow day (my kids live in St Louis with their mom, and they've had what would have been a normal winter when I grew up there...6, maybe 7 snows, all of them 4" or better). We're under a red flag warning for grass fires; the humidity here has been extremely low, and up here on the bald prairie the wind blows pretty good every day...

That having been said, hopefully you guys won't see a great deal of flooding; I grew up in little river towns in Missouri and I know from floods
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
263. Patrap
04:23 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
OKay Flood, good to c ya
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
262. sullivanweather
04:19 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
I've been dealing with the snow, bro.

19" of snow over the previous week here with another 4-8" expected tonight.

There's another storm coming here on Tuesday and Wednesday which is looking to be on the rain side rather than snow, but the rain/snow line is within 100 miles of my place and the trend over the previous 2 week has definitely been to shift these systems southeast as they draw near. So I could be looking at another major storm as some emsemble members are still indicating a classic nor'easter which could drop over a foot of snow. Then there's another storm on models prepped to come through here next Friday and Saturday.

If everything works out on the snow side we could have a 3 foot snowpack here by next Sunday.

I don't like to think about a 3 foot snowpack heading into spring around these parts cause that only means that we have the potential for extensive flooding should we all melt at once as we did in April of 2004.


How's things been down your way?
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
261. Floodman
04:13 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
So Storm, Patrap, Sullivan...how have you been? Ive been sio caught up in work and *other* things that I've had very little opportunity to come in here...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
260. Patrap
04:12 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
wunderground 1950 H-season archive Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
259. Floodman
04:10 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
'55 was a bad year for the Carolinas, '71 had no majors, and '99 had Brett...I'm afraid we'll see some action this year; only once have we gone through three contiguous years without a major
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
258. Patrap
04:06 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Tropical Cyclone Tracker ..This viewer is an interactive track of every Atlantic Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane since 1950. To view a specific hurricane, select a year from the menu
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
257. sullivanweather
04:00 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
There was quite a few bad ones in 1950.

Still holds the record for most majors in one season.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
256. Floodman
03:57 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Ooops, my bad...1950 was hurricanes Easy and King, both south Florida CAT 3s
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
255. Floodman
03:54 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Good morning everyone, BTW...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
254. Floodman
03:54 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Yikes...wasn't 1950 the year of the infamous hurricane Dog?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
252. sullivanweather
03:46 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Adrian,

Going back to 1950, 4 out of 5 years have shown above normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in La Nina years where the La Nina is an ongoing event from the prior year. The only exception is 1975

1950
1955
1971
1999

Those 4 years all had above normal activty in the tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
251. surfmom
03:20 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Thanks BIG StormW - I always feel like such a goof for these simple questions...but I got to start somewhere. LOL Off to work. bb later in the PM
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
248. surfmom
02:57 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Totally cool link -post 243- really like that one ptrap - have you ever checked out www.magicseaweed.com? You might enjoy information provided there.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
247. weathermanwannabe
02:51 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

THE SQUALL LINE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS THE LWR MS/DEEP S WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER PSBL...THOUGH PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SERN STATES/ERN CAROLINAS AS THE STRONGEST ASCENT/LLJ AXIS BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION.


It will be touch and go for the SE on Monday.....Just need to stay alert....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
246. surfmom
02:51 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Anybody got a minute...vocab word definitions would be appreciated. What is SPC and then per StormW's post What does SLGT and D4-5 appearing on the SPC maps mean? Thanks big
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
245. vortfix
02:47 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
Reliably....this is as far out as the Florida forecast can go regarding any severe weather:


Photobucket

244. weathermanwannabe
02:41 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
241. yamil20 9:15 AM EST on February 29, 2008
good morning everyone,what are the chances of south florida getting severe weather early next week?


The "cut-off" on the SPC forecast, for right now, is around Central Florida, but as usual, one does not know how "low" the strong low pressure system will trail accross Florida on Monday..............The West coast of Florida needs to be watching closely as well I would think...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
243. Patrap
02:21 PM GMT die 29o February, anno 2008
120 hour GOM SSt model

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613

Viewing: 293 - 243

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.