The March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: one EF-4, 39 deaths

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:40 PM GMT die 05o March, anno 2012

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A blanket of snow 2 - 4 inches deep fell yesterday on the regions of Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky pounded by deadly tornadoes on Friday, adding to the misery of survivors. The violent tornado rampage killed 39 and injured hundreds more, wreaking property damage that will likely exceed $1 billion. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 21 and 12 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one each in Alabama and Georgia. The scale of the outbreak was enormous, with a preliminary total of 139 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to Northern Florida. The National Weather Service issued 297 tornado warnings and 388 severe thunderstorm warnings. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak, and an area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings. Tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Video 1. Spectacular video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. You can see small satellite vorticies rotating on the side of the main vortex.


Video 2. Another video of the EF-4 tornado that devastated Henrysville and Marysville, Indiana on March 2, 2012, taken from a gas station.

The deadliest and most violent tornado: an EF-4
The deadliest and most violent tornado of the March 2, 2012 outbreak was an EF-4 with winds up to 175 mph that demolished much of Henryville, Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, Indiana. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a weaker EF-1 tornado hit the town. The twin tornadoes killed twelve people. The Henryville tornado was the only violent EF-4 tornado of the outbreak.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the two tornadoes that hit Henryville, Indiana on March 2, 2012. The first (rightmost) hook echo on the reflectivity image belonged to the only violent tornado of the outbreak, an EF-4 with winds of 166 - 200 mph. Ten minutes after that tornado demolished much of Henryville, a second tornado hit the town. These tornadoes also caused severe damage to the towns of Chelsea, Marysville, and New Pekin, and killed twelve people.

At least eleven other tornadoes in the outbreak have been classified as EF-3s with winds of 136 - 165 mph. Capitalclimate.com reports that the EF-3 tornadoes that crossed three Eastern Kentucky counties were the first tornadoes that strong ever observed, since tornado records began in 1950. The deadliest of the EF-3 tornadoes hit West Liberty, Kentucky, killing eight. Here's a summary of the deadly tornadoes of the outbreak taken from Wikipedia:

EF-4, 12 deaths, Henrysville, Indiana
EF-3, 8 deaths, West Liberty, Kentucky\
EF-2, 5 deaths, East Bernstadt, Kentucky
EF-3, 4 deaths, Crittenden, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Holton, Indiana
EF-3, 3 deaths, Peach Grove, Ohio
EF-3, 2 deaths, Blaine, Kentucky
EF-3, 2 deaths, Salyersville, Kentucky
EF-2, 1 death, Jackson's Gap, Alabama


Figure 2. Damage in West Liberty, Kentucky after the March 2, 2012 EF-3 tornado. Image taken from from a Kentucky National Guard Blackhawk helicopter, while landing in West Liberty, KY (Morgan County).


Figure 3. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky EF-3 tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado carved a 60-mile-long path through Eastern Kentucky, causing extreme damage in West Liberty. The tornado killed six in West Liberty and two near Frenchburg. At least 75 people were injured. It was the first EF-3 tornado in Eastern Kentucky since 1988.


Video 3. A woman prays for deliverance of West Liberty as the ominous wall cloud of the developing tornado approaches the town.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. NWS damage surveys have not yet determined if one of the tornadoes from the outbreak has beaten the record for the fastest moving tornado, the 73 mph forward speed of the great 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time.


Video 4. A family gets in their car in an attempt to flee the Borden, Indiana tornado of March 2, 2012. Unless you know what you're doing, fleeing a tornado in a car can be extremely dangerous, especially when the tornadoes are moving at speeds of 50 - 70 mph, as many were doing during the March 2, 2012 outbreak. Most tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes and cars.

Largest 5-day and 2nd largest 2-day tornado outbreak for so early in the year?
The March 2 tornado outbreak spawned 128 tornadoes, according to preliminary reports as of 8 am EST March 7 from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. An additional 11 tornadoes (preliminary) touched down on March 3, in Florida and Georgia; 3 additional tornadoes touched down on March 1 (Wikipedia does a great job tallying the stats for this tornado outbreak.) These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but a few delayed reports will likely come in, bringing the total number of tornadoes from the March 2 - 3 outbreak to 115 - 125, propelling it into second place for the largest two-day tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five two-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year, since record keeping began in 1950:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
March 2 - 3, 2012: 139 tornadoes (preliminary), 39 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the five-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 is likely to eclipse the late January 18 - 22, 1999 five-day tornado outbreak (131 tornadoes) as the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 4. A key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of warm, moist air near the surface, which helps make the atmosphere unstable. On the day of the March 2, 2012 outbreak, record warm air surged northwards into the tornado formation region, setting or tying daily high temperature records at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.

Ingredients for the tornado outbreak
This year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere--warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.


Figure 5. The other key ingredient for tornado formation is the presence of very strong winds aloft that change speed and direction sharply with height. This change of wind imparts a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. Here, we see the upper-level wind speeds at the peak of the March 2, 2012 tornado outbreak. The jet stream can be seen as the U-shaped belt of strong winds. Jet stream winds in excess of 100 mph (deep blue colors) were present over the tornado outbreak area in this analysis of data from the NOAA North American Model (NAM) from 7 pm EST March 2, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Another bad year for tornadoes in the U.S.--what's going on?
Last year's tornado season was incredibly severe, and we are off to one of the worst early-season starts to tornado season on record now in 2012. However, it is too soon to ring the alarm bells on climate change being responsible for this. The tornado data base going back to 1950 doesn't show an increasing trend in strong tornadoes in recent decades. While climate change could potentially lead to an increase in tornadoes, by increasing instability, it could also decrease them, by decreasing wind shear. I'd need to see a lot more bad tornado years before blaming climate change for the severe tornado seasons of the past two years. One thing that climate change may be doing, though, is shifting the season earlier in the year. The 5-day total of tornadoes from February 28 - March 3 will probably break the record of 131 set in 1999 for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. Warmer winters, and an earlier arrival of spring due to a warming climate, will allow tornado season to start earlier--and end earlier. This year's early start to tornado season is consistent with what we would expect from a warming climate. I have a more extensive article on this subject that has just been published by Weatherwise magazine, and a 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? Dr. Jonathan Martin of the University of Wisconsin-Madison is doing interesting research on the type of situation we saw with some of the recent severe tornado outbreaks, when two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet and the subtropical jet, merge to form a "superjet." In a December 2011 interview with sciencedaily.com, he said: "There is reason to believe that in a warmer climate, this kind of overlapping of the jet streams that can lead to high-impact weather may be more frequent."

I don't see any storm systems coming over the next 10 days that could cause a major tornado outbreak, though March weather is too volatile to forecast reliably that far in advance. There is a storm system expected to develop on Thursday in the Plains we will have to watch, but so far, indications are that it will not be capable of generating a major tornado outbreak.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity reports that volunteers from colleges and churches made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois on Sunday. Team Rubicon and Portlight will push east to Indiana, where volunteer work is still restricted because of gas leaks and continuing SAR (search and rescue) operations.

I'll edit this post with new stats on the tornado outbreak as they become available, and have an entirely new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Tornado (JimAtTn)
This picture of a small tornado was taken on Friday March 02, 2012 in southern Lincoln County, Tennessee about 7 miles south of Fayetteville. Photographer: Angela Currey-Echols
Tornado
3/2/12 Tornado (charles7013)
A tornado in Dodsen Brach TN.
3/2/12 Tornado
High Risk (LightningFastMedia)
Rotating wall cloud and a possible funnel yesterday, north of Evansville, IN.
High Risk
tornado damage 3/2/12 (clerese3)
3/2/12 tornado damage to a business I pass on my way to and from work. This was a beautiful brick building.
tornado damage 3/2/12
Tornado Damage - TN (GeorgiaPeach)
I uploaded this photo once already and it was rejected for having the wrong date. I explained before, but I will explain again. The tornado came through March 2nd but I had just gotten out of the hospital, so I didn't get out to take pictures of the damage until today. This is five miles from my house in Hamilton County, TN.
Tornado Damage - TN

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555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast
?"
584 KEEPEROFTHEGATE "I think I am a lesbian too. I like girls."

For you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, my personal weather records(that date back to 2009 lol) have set a new record for highest pressure recorded in my location!

Previous record high since 09: 30.47in/1031.7mb

New record since 09: 30.64in/1037.3mb

thanx to that ridge sitting over the coastal areas of VA/NC
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting entrelac:
The Austin/San Antonio NWS Office doesn't seem to think so.

Of course the usual low water crossing problem areas will probably get tricky late Thurs/early Fri.


If you want to see some great photos/vid of Hill Country flash flooding search for anything taken in Pedernales Falls State Park. The topography there promotes sudden and violent flash flooding.

In '96 a train of Tstorms ONLY over Llano went on for days without a drop here in Austin, which raised Lake Travis 14' in one day. I had a helluva time convincing my boss that I REALLY needed to leave to move the dock.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3134
Quoting hydrus:
Dinah Shore was not a bad dish either..jmo of course.


And that picture does not really do her justice!

Added:

Link
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Possibly, but I'm not sure yet. There are still many things to be hashed out with this upcoming storm, so alot of the specifics are not known at this time.

Austin wx forecasts have been jumping all over: four solid days of rain and thunderstorms, then back to two 20%ers and one 40%er, as of last night 3-4" looked like a done deal, but the narrative has shifted back to .5 - 2.0".
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3134
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i think i am a lesbian too i like girls
Dinah Shore was not a bad dish either..jmo of course.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Several Colorado cities are shown at GOES-East - Central Region WFO Satellite Imagery

Nice one
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I think you're looking for the GOES FTP server. I can't remember where it is exactly, but they have some mighty fine imagery available there.

I think that is it, does it cost money?
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Quoting redwagon:

Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?
The Austin/San Antonio NWS Office doesn't seem to think so.

Of course the usual low water crossing problem areas will probably get tricky late Thurs/early Fri.


If you want to see some great photos/vid of Hill Country flash flooding search for anything taken in Pedernales Falls State Park. The topography there promotes sudden and violent flash flooding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yea that is pretty much how it is all over Texas right now. I believe they pumped a whole lot of water out of Lake Conroe into Lake Houston right before winter time to get it back to a "normal" level. Plus the 10" or so of rain we have had since January 1st has helped a lot!


Yes, The City of Houston was drawing from Lake Conroe. They only needed to so for a short period of time and they were only trying to maintain level when they did. They were not attempting to fill Lake Houston with water from Lake Conroe. We got lucky with the rains we did catch here and with enough rain to north to fill Lake Houston again. .... breathes heavy sigh of relief
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Quoting jitterboy:
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much


Several Colorado cities are shown at GOES-East - Central Region WFO Satellite Imagery
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TX needs a good storm come June, good way to start the summer off, help vegetation get a jump and maintain itself into the heat of the summer
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587 aspectre "George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.
Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.
"
588 DavidHOUTX "That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life."

The person who will receive the money does have a better purpose in mind... which is good since the buyer obviously has a certain lack of imagination when it comes to spending money.

602 jitterboy "HA, At first I thought it was a gold nugget, not a chicken mcnugget."

If it were a natural gold nugget, it woulda sold for considerably more. Natural gold nuggets sell for many multiples of the market value for the metal. And a lump that size would weigh a pound or so.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)


Yea that is pretty much how it is all over Texas right now. I believe they pumped a whole lot of water out of Lake Conroe into Lake Houston right before winter time to get it back to a "normal" level. Plus the 10" or so of rain we have had since January 1st has helped a lot!
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)


That's amazing that water climbed back up like that
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Oh we need a flood here. A lot of SE Texas gets their water supply from the lakes (Lake Houston supplies almost all of Houston except for well water in the far suburbs). The Lake levels need to be brought up from the "run off".

I have lived in Houston almost all of my life and we have usually had a bad flood every 5-10 years. We haven't had one since 2000. We are definitely due for one. And coming right after the worst drought in history, I will gladly welcome it.


Lake Houston is full again. I went over it on 1960 2 weeks ago. That poor guy that had boats on the lifts can now launch them again. All he could do last summer was to drop them down onto the dirt. He did not have any water within 30 feet of his boats. He was stuck up a lift and with no place to go. ;-)
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Quoting redwagon:

Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?

Possibly, but I'm not sure yet. There are still many things to be hashed out with this upcoming storm, so alot of the specifics are not known at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jitterboy:
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much


I think you're looking for the GOES FTP server. I can't remember where it is exactly, but they have some mighty fine imagery available there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.

HA, At first I thought it was a gold nugget, not a chicken mcnugget.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"


Are we looking at a chance of flash flooding in the Hill Country?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3134
Lake Charles is actually wavering less in this discussion.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A MOISTENING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SHALLOW SURFACE MOIST LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN DEPTH THROUGH WED WITH A FEW LOW TOPPED STREAMER
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX AND CENTRAL LA BY AFTERNOON. ALSO ON
WED... AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SW STATES AND THEN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
VARY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE VARIOUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL BE AROUND THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR BOTH MODELS PAINTS A WET
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME PORTIONS
OF E TX, LA, AND AR. KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF... A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO REGION FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY
STALL WHILE A BROAD LOW MOVES OUT THE GULF AND ACROSS E TX SAT.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
INTO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

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I don't think they will really have an idea about this until later tomorrow or early Thursday
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Here is a comparison of the GFS and CMC daily QPF, just to show how varying the solutions still are.


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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like the models are still way out of agreement. Starting to wonder if this even is going to happen or not...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT A BIT THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. QUITE A BIT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SO WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. MODELS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGER A BIT. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS IS IN
PLAY SO WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOW MORE DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY WILL BUMP POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS KICKS THE LOW TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND IS THE
FASTEST MODEL. THE ECMWF AND CAN REMAIN THE SLOWEST. FEEL THE GFS
IS TOO FAST AND THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT TOO SLOW. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME...
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE IN PHASE AND DYNAMICS CHANGE FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT
ANOTHER S/WV DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY AND
THIS FEATURE COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AGAIN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT WITH THE GFS FOCUSING
RAIN EAST OF THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FOCUSING HEAVY RAIN OVER
MUCH OF SE TX. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. 43


They tend to be conservative
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life.


I'd take it from the moron who bought it and take a bite outta it, then tell him to kiss my a$$
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Yeah, the 12Z ECMWF offered a slightly different solution than it had been giving previously, which lowers forecast confidence since that was one of the solutions forecasters were leaning on the heaviest. It'll be interesting to see how this shapes up, especially with the CMC getting even more extreme with its forecasted precipitation here.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"



You can always look at a dewpoint map and see where the moist air stops abruptly and bumps up against those balconies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello,
I do snow removal in Colorado. In the past I have seen satellite imagery that is centered on a single state that some people on this blog have access to. I remember asking about it and learning that it was a paid for service. I was wondering if anyone knows how I may go about getting that service. Thanks much
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.


I know, if you aren't from TX, you fail to grasp the situation period.
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Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Let's see you try to sell a cloud for that much on EBay.

That's ridiculous, it's just a freaking chicken nugget.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Looks like the models are still way out of agreement. Starting to wonder if this even is going to happen or not...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT A BIT THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. QUITE A BIT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS WELL. THE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SO WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM
AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. MODELS ARE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGER A BIT. MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS IS IN
PLAY SO WILL STICK WITH 20 POPS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOW MORE DIVERGENCE ON THURSDAY WILL BUMP POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS KICKS THE LOW TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND IS THE
FASTEST MODEL. THE ECMWF AND CAN REMAIN THE SLOWEST. FEEL THE GFS
IS TOO FAST AND THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT TOO SLOW. WENT WITH
CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. AT THIS TIME...
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE IN PHASE AND DYNAMICS CHANGE FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT
ANOTHER S/WV DEVELOPING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION ON SUNDAY AND
THIS FEATURE COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AGAIN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT WITH THE GFS FOCUSING
RAIN EAST OF THE REGION AND THE ECMWF FOCUSING HEAVY RAIN OVER
MUCH OF SE TX. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. 43
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Winds here now are 25 to 40 mph, bad hair day. :)



Sigh. Story of my life. ;)
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Quoting aspectre:
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Let's see you try to sell a cloud for that much on EBay.


That is ridiculous. Who in the hell would buy that. Could use that money for much better purposes in life.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 598
George Washington McNugget sold for $8100.

Try selling a cloud for that much on EBay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
more moistya

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


So far the 2012 Severe Season has seen 274 Tornadoes,and that is astonishing for being early March.

Link
274 reports, not actual tornadoes. Usually the actual confirmed number of tornadoes is around 15% lower than the amount reported.
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Quoting aspectre:
555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?
"

Aww c'mon... That's utterly absurd. It ain't as if anyone would ever prefer sex over watching golf or talking about the day's play in the afterhours.

i think i am a lesbian too i like girls
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.
Winds here now are 25 to 40 mph, bad hair day. :)
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Quoting nymore:
My favorite weather forecaster Frankie MacDonald, hits the nail on the head for the storm last week in Minnesota. img src="">

Now Frankie has issued a warning for Colorado. img src="">


that guy is really disturbing
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
554) 72 in Spfld, 73 in StL, but very windy red flag day, almost as warm tomorrow. Pretty warm long range too, we'll see. May have to get the cool season garden started!
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Quoting entrelac:

Flash flood events in the Hill Country are awe inspiring.

We moved to Austin from Houston just in time for the TS Hermine flood event. I have never seen floods rip through an area quite like that before.

There really isn't a place quite like it in the United States. The Balconies Uplift promotes some orographic lifting, but it isn't large enough to impede airflow. It's also situated about perpendicular to the moistest possible flow off of the nearby Gulf of Mexico. When the uplift acts in conjunction with a boundary or some other type of convergent forcing, things can get out of hand there very quickly and spectacularly. There is a reason why the area is referred to as "Flash Flood Alley!"

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Everybody talking about only needing soaking light/moderate rains, the damn water system is gone, gotta have a flood to get that back up...to survive!
Lake Travis west of Austin still 40 feet below Normal and 50 feet from being full, they have gained 3 feet total since last year, that area for sure needs a flood. The Ground here is Bone Dry past 2 or 3 inches. Most of Texas needs 10 to 15 inches of rain if not more.
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Quoting nigel20:
March 5 2012

The southern caribbean SSTs are much colder when compared to 2011, but the GOM is generally warmer when compared to 2011
That is so weird how the cold spot looks exactly like the shape of the GOM
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
Quoting akunicycler:
Hurricane Hunters visiting Alaska (where I live)
Link to local news story:
Link
that's awesome!
"They say to think of the earth's atmosphere as a giant swimming pool. Make a splash in one corner and eventually you'll notice the ripples on the other end."
-a systemic understanding of the atmosphere is key.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
555 NttyGrtty "Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:
Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.
Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?
"

Aww c'mon... That's utterly absurd. It ain't as if anyone would ever prefer sex over watching golf or talking about the day's play in the afterhours.
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Hurricane Hunters visiting Alaska (where I live)
Link to local news story:
Link
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Right in the middle of Texas's 1950's superdrought, there were two separate rain events that were actually much larger than the Tennessee floods! The first one was a freak storm in September 1952 and the second involved the remains of 1954's Hurricane Alice (the first one :P).

The 1952 event was one of the largest to ever occur in the Texas Hill Country, possibly even exceeding the June 1935 and October 1998 events. Several counties saw totals in excess of 20" with a max of 26" upstream of Austin. The Colorado River surged to a level greater than the typical Mississippi River flow. The flood gouged out the Hill Country, but thankfully was mostly caught by a near empty Lake Travis, which was at a record low that still stands today.

Flash flood events in the Hill Country are awe inspiring.

We moved to Austin from Houston just in time for the TS Hermine flood event. I have never seen floods rip through an area quite like that before.
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Thanks for the background. Just surprised to see such an odd ad on here
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Greetings all. Hadn't been here in a while so I log in and there at the top of the blog entry, an ad:

Dinah Shore Weekend 2012: The largest lesbian event in the world.

Anyone else see that or did I blink too fast?


You could have seen that. Dinah started a women's golf tournament in 1972. Several years later (1990?) the tournament weekend and location became a party get-together for women who like women.

It's fairly certain that Dinah was interested in men rather than women. Just a few of the men that she dated included Frank Sinatra, James Stewart, General George Patton.

Apparently the weekend party has grown into a somewhat major event. It's heartening to realize that our country has matured to the point where folks who aren't "the majority" can openly get together and enjoy each others company.

We're getting closer and closer to "equal rights for all"...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With 144 unfiltered tornado reports for Friday, (I'm using unfiltered because before we got the unfiltered/filtered option, they were all unfiltered) it was the biggest tornado outbreak since April 27, 2011, surpassing each and every day of the May 21-26 tornado outbreak sequence, which featured the Joplin tornado.

Amazing for early MARCH.





Things are lining up for another huge tornado year over the next few months. I hope everybody is as prepared as they can be...


So far the 2012 Severe Season has seen 274 Tornadoes,and that is astonishing for being early March.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13989
With 144 unfiltered tornado reports for Friday, (I'm using unfiltered because before we got the unfiltered/filtered option, they were all unfiltered) it was the biggest tornado outbreak since April 27, 2011, surpassing each and every day of the May 21-26 tornado outbreak sequence, which featured the Joplin tornado.

Amazing for early MARCH.





Things are lining up for another huge tornado year over the next few months. I hope everybody is as prepared as they can be...



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.