Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:26 PM GMT die 20o June, anno 2011

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The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters

Questionable Building Site! (Nikongranny)
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Questionable Building Site!
Monument Fire, Tuesday (paperbag)
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.
Monument Fire, Tuesday
()

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Quoting Patrap:
Indeed,,the Officers one is swankier than the NCO Enlisted one..


hey always use a "O" sword to cut the cake every Nov 10



my back side is intimately familiar with his swagger stick...which has been banned as an instrument of torture...which, in my case, it was ;-)
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Has anyone figured out yet exactly what's going on in the image in post #290 yet?
It looks to me like there's some ridge pumping going on.


They are just Pyro clouds formed when there is intense heating at the surface (Like an explosion, or in this case, a fire).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
522. Skyepony (Mod)
Situation Update No. 1
On 20.06.2011 at 17:09 GMT+2

Many drivers trying to cross from southeast Nebraska into Missouri and Iowa on Monday found bridges closed for more than 100 miles for safety reasons due to flooding and heavier water flows on the Missouri River. Authorities said water flowing over two levees in northwest Missouri's Holt and Atchison counties on Sunday closed U.S. Highways 159 and 136 in western Missouri, also affecting bridge crossings at Rulo and Brownville in southeastern Nebraska. The heavily used Nebraska Highway 2 bridge at Nebraska City, Nebraska, was closed earlier due to high water on I-29 on the Iowa side of the river. This means that all Missouri River bridges between Plattsmouth, Neb., just south of Omaha, to St. Joseph, Mo. are now closed, a distance of about 112 miles. The closures coincided with stepped-up releases of water from overflowing reservoirs much further north on the swollen river by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is trying to manage record flood waters this season in the Plains. The Corps boosted water releases over the weekend from two dams -- Oahe above Pierre, South Dakota's capital, and Big Bend Dam just downstream from that -- to make room for more flows expected potentially heavy coming rains.

In North Dakota, residents braced as Garrison Dam above the state capital at Bismarck and nearby Mandan on Monday planned to release a sustained peak flow of 150,000 cubic feet per second. "This 72 hours that we are in right now with the 150,000 cubic feet per second is probably the most critical period," Bismarck Mayor John Warford told reporters on Monday morning. "This is the point in time when our levees are tested." Oahe Dam flows were running at 158,000 cubic feet per second on Monday. The target is 160,000, set by the Corps for releases starting Sunday. Heavy rains and snow melt along the Missouri River valley have flooded areas from Montana through Missouri, forcing residents to shore up protections, raise temporary levees and evacuate their homes. Peak releases are planned until at least mid-August and high flows are expected until December. The North Dakota National Guard reported 21 responses over the weekend for spot levee repairs in the Bismarck area.
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Indeed,,the Officers one is swankier than the NCO Enlisted one..


They always use a "O" sword to cut the cake every Nov 10
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
This isitLink
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It is possible, although unlikely at this time, that Beatriz has reached her peak. Land interaction is only going to be a bigger problem from here on out, and by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will begin to enter significantly cooler waters and dry air.

I doubt this system will become a Category 2 hurricane, and I may have to trim back my 85-90 mph peak to more like 75-80 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting presslord:
Pat...Did I ever tell you I have my dad's dress sword framed in a shadow box hanging in my living room?



No u dint,,and Im gonna dock ya one Dress.

Those are fine Display items and I bet it looks cool as all get out.

Marine non-commissioned officers' sword, 1859-present
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Take a look at this warning for the storms heading into the Omaha metro area.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAC085-NEC025-053-055-131-153-155-177-210130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110621T0130Z/
HARRISON IA-CASS NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-OTOE NE-SARPY NE-SAUNDERS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
EASTERN SAUNDERS...SARPY...NORTH CENTRAL OTOE...DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INGLEWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SPOTTERS ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS AT VENICE ALONG HIGHWAY 92.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...VALLEY...CEDAR CREEK...SPRINGFIELD...MURRAY...WATERLOO...
ELKHORN...MILLARD...ARLINGTON...PLATTSMOUTH...PAPI LLION...LA
VISTA...RALSTON...OFFUTT AFB...BELLEVUE...KENNARD...COUNCIL
BLUFFS...BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND CHALCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS
DOORS. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DAMAGE TREES AND CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9629 4097 9646 4104 9646 4105 9653
4133 9676 4168 9616 4170 9610 4151 9597
4149 9602 4143 9593 4134 9596 4131 9587
4127 9590 4130 9592 4130 9593 4119 9593
4118 9584 4116 9588 4106 9588 4096 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 222DEG 34KT 4144 9651 4095 9607
WIND...HAIL 75MPH 1.00IN
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
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Loop Current and Eddy Circulation Studies

P.I: Prof Nan Walker


The Gulf Loop Current is one of the most dynamic ocean currents in the world. Frontal eddy cyclones, regions of vigorous upwelling, develop along its margin in association with current meanders, increasing current speeds and impacting flow even in 3000 m of water. At irregular intervals, large warm eddies separate from the Loop Current and move westward, dissipating over many months along the Texas and Mexican coasts. The Loop Current and its eddies are large reservoirs of heat that have the capability to intensify hurricanes and tropical storms crossing the Gulf. Using infrared measurements from the GOES-East satellite, a "cloud eraser" was developed that has enabled us to track and study the frontal eddy cyclones that move rapidly (35 km/day) around the margin of the Loop Current. More recently we have been integrating GOES sea surface temperature data with satellite sea surface height data (from Dr. Robert Leben, CCAR) to improve our capabilities for studying the complex eddy field in the Gulf. Our funding for this research comes mainly from the Minerals Management Service. Visit the SST/SSH image archives and animation page. Publications of interest include Walker et al. (2003), Walker et al. (2005) , and Walker et al. (2006).

Image Archives of Interest

Gulf of Mexico GOES SST/SSH products (daily, weekly and movie loops)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Pat...Did I ever tell you I have my dad's dress sword framed in a shadow box hanging in my living room?
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It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.
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Has anyone figured out yet exactly what's going on in the image in post #290 yet?
It looks to me like there's some ridge pumping going on.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! big wave coming off of Eastern Atlantic
soon!!


This one coming off Africa seems to be on a mission!
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.


Hey Genius, try and make it through MET school, then see how that whole bashing the experts thing works for ya...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Mean, can't be nothing good with that.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
The Atlantic doesn't seem to have a happy medium when it comes to when the season begins. Aside from the 90s, it seems that seasons with their first 'A' storm in July are somewhat uncommon. The most recent example is 2002. Just throwing that out there.
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The Marines are coming!!! Hide your daughters...
Link
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53866
Quoting FrankZapper:
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.


brains are the best super computers
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Sorry about dat I had to go stand in the RAIN for a few min. strangest thing could hear the birds chirping dont usaly see that when it rains.



Link
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Quoting weatherh98:


put the bobicus breckicus up there with viper aand nash with his marker and nash wins
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.
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Quoting RickWPB:


B
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Quoting ackee:
WHEN DO u guys think we see our first name storms ?


A JUNE
B JULY <--
C AUG
D SEP
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Remains as Tropical Storm on 00z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2011062100, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1033W, 60, 989, TS
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Quoting alfabob:
New burst of convection forming, you can see how it is sucking in all of that moisture to the east now.


im notseein that but okay
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492. beell
Quoting alfabob:
I don't think it is weakening, convection isn't as deep but definitely more overall moisture in the area. Also there is no shear or dry air, so if it actually is dissipating it is due to interaction with land; but I would let it get past dmin before making any assumptions.


Could be a little bit of more stable air working in to the west side of Beatriz also. As evidenced by the low level stratocumulus clouds on the west side of the storm at the beginning of the RGB loop (at upper left).

RGB Loop

Beatriz is scared a dat.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16652
I to C: have mercy
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Quoting weatherh98:


always caps lock THE CHART


Awww man, now i got to go to the back of class again?
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Quoting blsealevel:


Wow, Looking at the chart realized how far we still have to go till the end of season glad you pointed that out for us, thank you


always caps lock THE CHART
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I just scrolled through and saw the discussion about activity ... or lack thereof for the Atlantic so far.

I also noticed a glaring omission from the arguments.

Allow me:

The Chart



I leave south florida (and the country) on July 20th, and I won't be back for a year. Will I get any action before I leave on July 20th?

According to the chart, I will likely miss action this year. I'll be in South Korea and their typhoon season is weak. At most a tropical storm typhoon. Too far north and geographically positioned a bit to east from the action (compared to Japan which is on the same latitude but receives more impacts). In terms of impacts, Japan is like the carolinas. Always getting swiped by weakening storms.
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I have a blog about this topic of comparing the 2011 Atlantic season with other active ones.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I just scrolled through and saw the discussion about activity ... or lack thereof for the Atlantic so far.

I also noticed a glaring omission from the arguments.

Allow me:

The Chart



Wow, Looking at the chart realized how far we still have to go till the end of season glad you pointed that out for us, thank you
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Quoting blsealevel:


Don't know about, that but he was good at what he did at the time.


put the bobicus breckicus up there with viper aand nash with his marker and nash wins
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Nash Charles Roberts Jr. (April 13, 1918 – December 18, 2010) was a New Orleans, Louisiana-based meteorologist widely known for the accuracy of his hurricane forecasts.



He began his career in weather during World War II. He worked for Admiral Chester Nimitz in the Pacific. Roberts was on the first plane to enter the eye of a tropical system near the Philippines. This method is still used today by the "Hurricane Hunters" of the Air Force based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi to measure and record internal conditions in hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean to help predict their development and path.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?

who is JFV
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Quoting weatherh98:


Nash is the best there ever was he was never wrong.


Don't know about, that but he was good at what he did at the time.
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Whoa! Have mercy....lol..
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Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)

2011-06-20 18Z eTRaP for BEATRIZ

Update for 2011-06-21 00Z is due at 03Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
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Quoting blsealevel:


I liked Mr. Roberts best we had at the time not a lot of people had computers back then at least we didn't, we had to be old school about some of this stuff.


Nash is the best there ever was he was never wrong.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so as of the timeline my numbers from that are:
17 Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes


I never released my June forecasts but I'm thinking this season will be very similar to 2003 or 2008 in terms of named storms (the setup however is much closer resembled to 2008 however)

16 named.
7 hurricanes.
4 majors.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24044
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
so as of the timeline my numbers from that are:
17 Storms
9 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.