Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

closest radar site in mexico is not working at this time

Sorry, jason, I should've backtracked further...

This heat wave and drought have Elway drinking again! :)

Evening TraumaBoyy. Hoping your night is quiet and full of coffee and donut breaks!

Morning folks 34w 6n looks pretty interesting no?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is possible, although unlikely at this time, that Beatriz has reached her peak. Land interaction is only going to be a bigger problem from here on out, and by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will begin to enter significantly cooler waters and dry air.

I doubt this system will become a Category 2 hurricane, and I may have to trim back my 85-90 mph peak to more like 75-80 mph.

Agreed.

I was expecting a cat 2, perhaps high end cat 2 if it stayed further away from land. However, Beatrice has had plans of her own and has been hugging the coastline for a while now, and has come increasingly closer to land. At least 1/3rd of the storm is over land now. Not to mention the land is very rugged and mountainous. Additionally, this system is fairly large and larger systems can take a while to get well organized, as noted by the ragged looking core. So it makes sense that this system hasn't really intensified in the last 6hrs.


Since the storm is expected to move over cooler SSTs, a drier and stabler air mass, as well as increased interaction with land, I don't expect this storm to become much stronger. If it continues on a more eastern or northern course, riding the coastline, then I'd say its reached its peak

That island "Maria Madre" could be hit by Beatriz

Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey guys, I just completed a blog entry on Beatriz. Please check it out.

nice write up kori

Quoting alfabob:
Could be a close call on those islands, if it does continue to become annular then steering is going to be harder to predict. Definitely going to cause major damage all along the coastline up to around Puerto Vallarta.

I highly doubt Beatriz will become annular

Quoting alfabob:

Just remember who called the last annular cane.

As of right now, Beatriz doesn't look annular at all. Look at the microwave image loop sunlinepr posted and the ir rainbow pic you posted. The intense convection around the core is extremely lop sided, with the large majority of it on the western side. Also seen on the microwave imagery is some spiral banding. Finally, the eye feature is ragged, small, and not very cleared out - there are still many mid to low level clouds in the eye.

For Beatriz to become annular, the intense convection around the eye would have to become near symmetrical, spiral banding would have to become minimal to non existent, the eye would need to become better defined and clear out.

Simply put, Beatriz is far from annular. And due to its extremely close proximity to land and the presence of rough mountainous terrain over land, as well as its forecasted track over cooler SSTs and a more stable and dry air mass within the next 2 days, I highly doubt this will become an annular hurricane.

Seems like the only break to become annular, would be if it moves far from land, and keeps in high SSTs

Quoting alfabob:

Just remember who called the last annular cane.

Staying humble is the biggest challenge in this field.

Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.

satellite interpretation is very subjective so I'm going to drop this argument. Time will tell what happens

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104)
15:00 PM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.5N 113.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.0N 110.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON
11:00 PM PhST June 21 2011
======================================

The Low Pressure Area east of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Falcon located at 11.7°N 132.3°E or 670 km east of Borongan, Easter Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Tornado Warning
2011-06-21 03:47:00 EDT until
2011-06-21 04:30:00 EDT

247 am CDT Tue Jun 21 2011

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Coleman County in north central Texas...

* until 330 am CDT

* at 245 am CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was 4 miles east of Glen Cove...or 10 miles west of
Coleman...moving southeast at 25 mph

616 alfabob "Probably the worst case scenario for Mexico right now; its following the path NHC has up, which is not moving inland."

Probably the best case scenario for Mexico right now. Most of Mexico has been in a Texas-style drought.

"About 40 percent of Mexico's territory has been experiencing the worst drought in seven decades, President Felipe Calderon said. Mexico experienced its second worst drought in 60 years in 2009, while 2010 was the rainiest year on record...
There are areas in Mexico where it has not rained since September..."

As is, HurricaneBeatriz is reported to be dropping precipitation as far east as MexicoCity... as well as wetting the formerly dry air flowing into the Gulf of Campeche. Which is good news inregard to future tropical development leading toward rainfall for both Texas and easternMexico.

In the near term, the best case scenario would be for TropicalStormBeatriz to turn northnorthwestward to continue following the coastline up through the center of the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez) all the way to Yuma*Arizona, then head east as it breaks up.
Not likely given the NHC's predicted path westward (or given the SSTs and atmospheric conditions), but one can always wishcast.

* 138feet(~42metres) above sea-level, inland 62miles(~100kilometres) north of the Sea of Cortez

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210838
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE
COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND
INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID
DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER
AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.

I was already watching that LPA. looks interesting.

Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.

I don't know about that. Meet Hurricane Rosa 1994. I remember this flood. We were in the process of moving into our brand new house. It was a mess to say the least! Rita moved us out 11 years later. Sigh. ;)



United States

Rosa sent moisture into the United States, which, in combination with humidity drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico, caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in parts of thirty eight Texas counties on October 15 to 19. The flooding was worst around the San Jacinto and Trinity River basins, and in coastal areas. Rainfall totals ranged from 8 in (200 mm) to more than 28 in (710 mm).[14] The rain levels caused 100-year floods at nineteen stations. Several records were broken, some of which had stood since 1940. In the case of the Lavaca River near Edna, it broke a record set in 1936.[15] The flooding destroyed 3069 homes, heavily damaged 6560, and damaged 6148 others. Railbeds and roads sustained damage, while broken gas and oil pipelines caused spills and environmental damage in the Lower San Jacinto River and Galveston Bay. Twenty-two people died due to effects from the storm. In total, the flooding in southeastern Texas caused 700 million (1995 USD) in damage.[14] On October 18, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared the worst-affected areas a disaster area.[16] After the declaration, FEMA received 26,000 applications for disaster assistance and approved 54 million (1995 USD) in aid.[14]
[edit] Lack of retirement

Current day 1 outlook: Mushroom.
Current day 2 outlook: Triangular flag placed sideways.
Current day 3 outlook: Small, half eaten mushroom.
Lurk mode activating....
Lurk mode activated.
Lurk Cam booting....
Lurk cam booted.
Starting Lurk XP...
Lurk XP started.
Now lurking.

so Beatriz is inland and still on the nnw course? whats anyone picking... dissapation over land or gonna go with official NHC forecast?

Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.

Beatriz is not even close to an annular storm

that trof up north does seem to have some uuuummmph

Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.

It's not becoming annular. The spiral rainbands should be gone.

Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.

character just pulling your feathers speaking of annular there was a donut that made landfall in new jersey back in the 50 or 60s

Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.

Wait, what?

Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks!

Good evening, Ron. I hope you don't mind if I call you that?

Don't mind at all.....been buzy savin the world!! How is the hurricanader doin??

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.

More than I have received in 13 months

Quoting Vincent4989:

Wait, what?

Look at the structure, look at how the CDO has become elongated from what it was. Here's an IR to prove that. Heavy land interaction.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.

wow,nice...
i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days.

...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...
5:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.4°N 105.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb

most interesting feature today is the system offshore cape hatteras speaking of donuts