Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:24 PM GMT die 27o May, anno 2011

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.

Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."

I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)

Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.

25 May, (rdjgonzo)

May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.

What A Storm (llpj04)

Categories: Tornado

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1351. SouthDadeFish 08:40 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Levi32: Observations at San Andres Isla, in the middle of the SW Caribbean Sea I don't see a 4mb pressure drop there.... Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

1352. RitaEvac 08:41 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Coastal TX is in uncharted territory right now, this area of gulf coast needs it more than anybody Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

1353. HurricaneDean07 08:41 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: It reminds me of paloma. you broke into my brain and stole my thought, i was thinking the exact same thing! Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1354. Levi32 08:42 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish: I don't see a 4mb pressure drop there.... Neither do I :/ Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1355. HurricaneDean07 08:42 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
stormpetrol, nah, not like nicole. Nicole was formed by some leftovers of matthew being fed into a split low from a trough. She went directly north and dissipated. This storms analog matches are more like(This goes from 1995 to 2010): Ida(2009)(FORMATION & TRACK?) Paloma(2008)(FORMATION & TRACK) Arlene(2005)(FORMATION & TRACK?) TD 14(2002)(TRACK & STRENGTH) Michelle(2001)(TRACK & FORMATION) Irene(1999)(FORMATION & TRACK) Allison(1995)(FORMATION & TRACK) Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1356. Levi32 08:46 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
In other news, the ECMWF seasonal forecast has suddenly shifted from stubbornly forecasting a weak Cape Verde season with below-average rainfall in the eastern Atlantic to an active year across the entire tropical basin, with the ITCZ farther north than normal. The reason for this seems to stem from the fact that it is no longer forecasting a warmer than normal Gulf of Guinea in the armpit of Africa. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1358. RitaEvac 08:47 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
6 week animation Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

1359. stormwatcherCI 08:47 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Levi32: Neither do I :/ Not 4 but definitely 3 Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1360. cchsweatherman 08:47 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Levi32: Just Paint.net :) I love it, but it's a shame I have to reboot into Windows just to use it. Nothing as good exists in linux. Thanks. Looks pretty awesome. Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

1361. stormwatcherCI 08:48 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: Sorry for your loss. Hopefully that rain will make it's way up into Florida and Georgia... And maybe west into Texas. Not my loss. I am located on the highest point of Grand Cayman but other areas had flooding. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1362. Stats56 08:48 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting RitaEvac: all I know is...the entire gulf coast needs rain, and we need something to bring it some way some how Almost 10 years since TS Allison. I hope for some, but not that much. Whay a joy it was to move from Tampa to Houston a few days before. Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67

1363. stormpetrol 08:49 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: stormpetrol, nah, not like nicole. Nicole was formed by some leftovers of matthew being fed into a split low from a trough. She went directly north and dissipated. This storms analog matches are more like(This goes from 1995 to 2010): Ida(2009)(FORMATION & TRACK?) Paloma(2008)(FORMATION & TRACK) Arlene(2005)(FORMATION & TRACK?) TD 14(2002)(TRACK & STRENGTH) Michelle(2001)(TRACK & FORMATION) Irene(1999)(FORMATION & TRACK) Allison(1995)(FORMATION & TRACK) Please don't say Michelle or Paloma, gives me goosebumps :)< Michelle cause much more damage here in Grand Cayman than I think many remember! Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

1364. Levi32 08:49 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Not 4 but definitely 3 The drop between the last diurnal min and the current diurnal min is just about nil. In fact, the pressure at 6pm yesterday was 1007mb, while the pressure at 4pm today is 1008mb, which is higher. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1365. Tropicsweatherpr 08:52 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Levi32: In other news, the ECMWF seasonal forecast has suddenly shifted from stubbornly forecasting a weak Cape Verde season with below-average rainfall in the eastern Atlantic to an active year across the entire tropical basin, with the ITCZ farther north than normal. The reason for this seems to stem from the fact that it is no longer forecasting a warmer than normal Gulf of Guinea in the armpit of Africa. Hmmm,the cooling there may be more than temporary. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218

1366. Bitmap7 08:52 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Its dmin already? Wow time flies. Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1367. CybrTeddy 08:53 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
12z ECMWF and CMC show a high end Tropical Storm. 12z GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET show an area of low pressure or TD. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20259

1368. wunderkidcayman 08:55 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Bitmap7: Its dmin already? Wow time flies. nope it not yet I don't think well I know that it peaks at sunset Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

1369. srada 08:55 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Wow..1365 comments..it must be a potential out there..LOL..Hello Everyone! Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

1371. Bitmap7 08:57 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
The only reason nogaps is showing the system being weaker is because it brings it close to land. For now I am on the ECMWF side, which is also on the cmc's side. The GFS obviously gets confused after a while. Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1373. HurricaneDean07 08:59 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: Sorry for your loss. Hopefully that rain will make it's way up into Florida and Georgia... And maybe west into Texas. Take a miracle for that~ Track Scenarios: -the storm goes Northeast into the caribbean islands from a trough pulling it. -the trough is to far east to pull the storm and it sits for 3 to 5 days and dies -the trough misses and the storm sits for days then the high weakens and it gets pulled into florida or the northern gulf coast. -the trough misses and the storm gets pushed west by the high and goes into the yucatan. Or the less likely~ -the storm gets pushed west into the yucatan and emerges in the bay of campeche, then the high weakens,and it gets pulled north into texas. low possibility for Texas to get hit... Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1374. tropicfreak 09:02 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
If this disturbance in the Caribbean does indeed develop, then we'd better hope that it doesn't slam the Yucatan in Mexico. Folks over there need a break this season after last hurricane season when storm after storm inundated the area, not to mention the Mexican coastline near the Texas border has been slammed plenty of times too last year. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1375. Bitmap7 09:02 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: What direction do the models send the System? Stationary or NW/NE More of a paloma track(to me), mostly going North. The ECMWF and CMC want to take it over Cuba. The GFS takes it north to Cayman then it vanishes, the nogaps has it going north slooooooooowly hugging the Nicaraguan coast. I can't see the ukmet so I don't know. I am thinking N/NNW/NW Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1376. Levi32 09:02 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman: nope it not yet I don't think well I know that it peaks at sunset Diurnal pressure minimum is at about 4pm local time everywhere over the ocean. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1377. JRRP 09:03 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
i think the system will move N and then NNW Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

1379. HurricaneDean07 09:06 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
cybrteddy CMC gone wild, not high end tropical storm, it a cat. 1, CMC: CAT.1 for Grand Cayman, West Cuba, and maybe florida EMCWF: 65 to 70 mph Tropical storm for W Cuba, and Florida GFS: TD or Weak TS wobbling around near jamaica NOGAPS: TD or maybe TS up the east coast of nicaragua slowly... Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1380. tropicfreak 09:06 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: What the Computer Models say: CMC (144 Hr) : GFS (144 Hr) : NOGAPS (144 HR) : ECMWF (144 hr) : Don't you think the CMC may be a little overexaggerant for forecasting quite a strong storm especially for the very beginning of hurricane season? Not saying it's impossible, we have seen quite a few of those... Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1382. Levi32 09:09 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Levi32: Diurnal pressure minimum is at about 4pm local time everywhere over the ocean. This is different than the diurnal temperature cycle that we usually talk about, which deals with the temperature of the atmosphere relative to the ocean. That difference has a maximum just after sunrise, and a minimum just before sunset. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1383. JRRP 09:10 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

1384. tropicfreak 09:11 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: I live in South Florida. Contrary to the common belief on this blog that people who blog from Florida are arrogant and wishcasters. Most of us do not intend to wishcast any storm into any region... including Florida... however there are a few outliners like "Shower Curtains" who may want a storm to hit Florida to cause major havoc. Anyway Calling it like i see it... I Say this "WEAK Disturbance" will Move due N into Cuba and Dissapate... Sending all of the much needed moisture away from Florida and into Haiti and Jamica. I can't believe some Floridians wish for a major storm to hit them, as if 04 and 05 weren't enough. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1386. tropicfreak 09:15 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy: Conditons as of Now.. Do not support anything Stronger than a Tropical Storm... So yes... CMC is going overboard.... However the track does seem reasonable. Agreed. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1389. Tropicsweatherpr 09:18 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
The 18z surface chart still shows no low pressure in SW Caribbean,as it shows a surface trough.Tropical wave just west of Lake Maracaibo and the other one just west of Trinidad & Tobago. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218

1390. HurricaneDean07 09:19 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
can someone give me the link to the GOES site that shows the shear tendency and other atmospheric maps? having a problem finding it. Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1391. Bitmap7 09:19 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting HurricaneDean07: can someone give me the link to the GOES site that shows the shear tendency and other atmospheric maps? having a problem finding it. Link Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429

1392. rmbjoe1954 09:20 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: I can't believe some Floridians wish for a major storm to hit them, as if 04 and 05 weren't enough. Amen! We will get the rainy season- only that season will start a tad late. We do not need a hurricane. Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

1393. srada 09:26 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Be careful for what you wish for..calling for "rain" in drought areas can sometimes be a bad thing...our kids will still be in school till June 13 because they have to make up days from ex tropical storm nicole last year..we got over 20 inches of rain from that system and we were in a drought when it happen which it turn into an expensive and costly event for a lot of families.. Member Since: August 17, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

1394. tropicfreak 09:28 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting rmbjoe1954: Amen! We will get the rainy season- only that season will start a tad late. We do not need a hurricane. I mean, since Isabel (03) and Gaston(04), here in Richmond VA, we haven't seen any major tropical systems that brought us devastation, and I don't want a powerful tropical system to hit us, unless it's more of a rainmaker and not so much wind. By the way, statewide, Isabel was the worst, and locally Gaston was the worst, not because of the wind but because of the hours and hours of torrential rainfall and flooding. As a matter of fact, it took out a portion of a street in downtown Richmond and it slid halfway down a steep slope. Anyway, we can use the rain (just as long as it isn't too much) and not so much the wind. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1395. tropicfreak 09:29 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting srada: Be careful for what you wish for..calling for "rain" in drought areas can sometimes be a bad thing...our kids will still be in school till June 13 because they have to make up days from ex tropical storm nicole last year..we got over 20 inches of rain from that system and we were in a drought when it happen which it turn into an expensive and costly event for a lot of families.. Well, at least you got completely caught up on your average rainfall, all in one system. Amazing... Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1397. tropicfreak 09:33 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
Quoting Hurrykane: Looking at forecast steering, I don't see this thing coming NEWD. Ehhhh... we'll see. Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

1399. HurricaneDean07 09:34 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
I will be back, going to make a steering current map for this year... Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4053

1401. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 09:36 PM GMT die 29o May, anno 2011
XX/INV/XL MARK 12.47N/79.76W Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40617

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