Invest now to improve tornado warnings; an early start to hurricane season?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 04:24 PM GMT die 27o May, anno 2011

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begin on Wednesday, June 1, and recent computer model runs predict that we may have some early-season action in the Central Caribbean Sea to coincide with the start of this year's season. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models have all indicated in some of their recent runs that a tropical disturbance may form between Jamaica and Central America sometime in the May 31 - June 2 time frame, as a lobe of the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) pushes across Central America into the Caribbean. Up until now, wind shear has been too high to allow tropical storm formation in the Caribbean, due to the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream. However, this jet is expected to push northwards over Cuba over the coming week, allowing a region of low wind shear to develop over most of the Caribbean. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. The main impediment to development will probably be lack of spin, as we don't have any African tropical waves that are expected to enter the Caribbean Sea next week, to help get things spinning. Stay tuned.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Songda.

Typhoon Songda heads for Okinawa and Japan
Typhoon Songda brushed the Philippines yesterday, bringing heavy rains that killed at least two people. Fortunately, the brunt of this year's first Category 5 storm missed the islands, and Songda has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Songda is turning northwards and will threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa. On Sunday,

Invest now for better tornado warnings
National Weather Service forecasters issued a tornado warning 24 minutes in advance of the Joplin, Missouri tornado this.week, which is now being blamed for at least 132 deaths--the deadliest U.S. tornado since at least 1947. However, we can do better, and the National Weather Service Employees Organization (NWSEO) put out a press release on May 23, arguing that investments in weather service forecasting technology are needed to reduce loss of life in future violent tornadoes:

"The 24-minute lead time is a great improvement over the average lead time of 13 minutes for tornado warnings. The meteorologists in the Springfield Weather Forecast Office are commended for their lifesaving work," said Dan Sobien, NWSEO President. "But in our age of advanced technology and communication, when new radars and modeling opportunities exist that can provide more lead time to get people out of the path of a storm, hundreds of people do not have to die because of a tornado event."

Sobien says the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes are examples of how the government's neglect to invest in NWS related infrastructure over the last 10 to 15 years has failed to provide the tools necessary to protect lives and property. He says that the tools forecasters use to issue tornado warnings are woefully inadequate and that the technology exists to provide lead times so far in advance of the storm that it would make the need for tornado warnings as we know them obsolete. "The much touted Doppler Weather Radar, also known as the Weather Service Radar or WSR-88D, was developed in 1988. Since that time, technological advances, including phased array radars developed by the Department of Defense, have been shown to increase the current lead time on tornado warnings by almost 50 percent."

"The much touted Warn on Forecast process utilizes Meso-scale modeling and has the potential to let forecasters know hours in advance where a thunderstorm would form and if it is likely to contain strong winds, hail, or even a tornado. With adequate staffing, local National Weather Service forecasters who understand local terrain and the model output, could be embedded with emergency managers and decision makers. In the event of a storm, the forecaster could provide emergency managers with the tornado track with some margin of error and people in the way of the storm could be evacuated hours before the tornado hits. This technology is being developed and tested right now, however without funding it will never be available."

"The art and science of severe weather warnings made considerable progress during the 1980s and 90s, going from almost zero lead time to average of about 13 minutes for tornado warnings. However, in recent years, that progress has stalled, even while the technological advancements have accelerated. If the country made the type of investment in the National Weather Service that it did in the 1980s, scenes like the ones in Missouri this week and in Alabama and Mississippi last month could be a thing of the past."

"I am very proud of my co-workers at the National Weather Service this tornado season. They saved many lives and having been there myself, I can assure you, they feel personally about every lost life," said Sobien. "I know that budgets are tight and there are many priorities, but if you put investing in the National Weather Service up to a vote today in tornado alley, I think the approval would be a landslide."


I wholeheartedly agree with this view--investments in better tornado forecasts and tornado observing technology will potentially give us a huge return in lives saved. Have a great holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday or Tuesday with a new post.


Jeff Masters

Tornado Power (Betty2)
Sunday, LaCrosse, WI a tornado hit. This is a photo of a 2x4 board that slammed through a tire.. and, freaky, but it left the air in the tire! Photo was taken by my neighbor, Lori Hines, Gays Mills WI.
Tornado Power
25 May, (rdjgonzo)
May 25, 2011 at 7:10pm. Picture taken from Bartlett (Shelby County) TN.
25 May,
What A Storm (llpj04)
What A Storm

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2486. IKE
11:16 PM GMT die 15o July, anno 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2485. RandyWeather
02:57 AM GMT die 02o June, anno 2011
I got a login just so I can respond to Jeff's posting regarding tornado warnings. Earlier warnings won't save many lives. Here's why:

I have a sister who lives in Joplin. I was on the phone with her just minutes before the tornado struck. She said "Oh, we're having another tornado warning. I'm going to turn the TV off, we get so many of those. This graphically illustrates a problem of crying wolf - too many warnings that are not geographically relevant. Warnings are issued on a potential tornado miles away and moving away or parallel. That's one problem - people get jaded.

Second problem - there's no place to hide from a storm of that magnitude. Hardly any houses have basements anymore. I heard that the Joplin twister was warned 24 minutes before it struck. That's plenty of time to hunker down in the middle of your house, but a lot of people weren't saved by that, because the entire house was destroyed right down to the foundation.

To save lives: 1. make warnings meaningful; 2. encourage, somehow, the construction of shelters, hardened rooms, some place people can be safe.

Thanks,
RandyWeather
Member Since: May 29, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
2484. Patrap
10:41 PM GMT die 01o June, anno 2011




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
2483. pressureman
01:01 AM GMT die 01o June, anno 2011
Before all you people get to excited about florida being hit by a depression or storm it isn't going to happen the westerlies that are in the GOM are much to strong..If anything tries to move into the GOM it will be ripped to shreds...The conditions are much to hostile for this thing to develop...So for now the the tropics are quiet.
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
2482. cre13
03:24 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Do you guys have sirens? Here in Macon, GA it's awfully hard to continue and go about what you're doing with deafening air raid sirens blaring.


No, we don't have sirens that go off for weather warnings. We have them but they are used for the volunteer fire department. The community is so used to hearing them to alert the volunteer fire fighters that they would ignore them if they were set off for weather reasons. I just don't have a clue about how to alarm these folks. People just seem to not care.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
2481. zoomiami
01:22 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
The water vapor is tantalizing close -- but doesn't look like it will get here any time soon.

Haven't really begun the rainy season here in Miami, and the pattern setting up doesn't look like there will be much for the next 8-10 days.

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
2480. jeffs713
01:16 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets jack oil up since hurricane season starts tomm

WTI Crude Oil
$102.37 ▲1.78

I thought it was "Lets jack up oil prices since it is a day that ends in Y, and my kid just got their tuition bill".
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
2479. ackee
01:15 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
I wonder when will the NHC will mention the distrubuance in SW carib not even a yellow circle
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1375
2478. IKE
01:13 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2477. RitaEvac
01:06 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Lets jack oil up since hurricane season starts tomm

WTI Crude Oil
$102.37 ▲1.78
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
2476. jasonweatherman2010
01:02 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW ATLC INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING STRONG CONVECTION
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-81W...AND S OF 11N
BETWEEN 74W-84W. A HORIZONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR THIS AREA OF
HEAVY STORMS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN.
TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 67W-71W. B
H01 0.+++0 THE SW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS STARTING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN E OF
75W CENTERED N OF BRAZIL NEAR 8N53W. EXPECT STRONG SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE LOW
FORMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E PROGRESSES
WESTWARD.

Member Since: April 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2278
2475. hurricaneben
01:02 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
so when will this most likely be declared an Invest?
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
2474. whadat
12:57 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
!
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
2473. IKE
12:56 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2472. Skyepony (Mod)
12:52 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Residents of southern Michigan were cleaning up on Monday after a violent storm ripped through the region, leaving at least 30,000 people without power, authorities said. The Sunday storm hit northern Illinois with heavy rains and lightning, canceling at least 400 flights at Chicago airports, before raking a stretch of southern Michigan from Kalamazoo to Detroit. No deaths or injuries were reported, officials said. The storm's 60-mile-per-hour winds drove heavy rain, uprooted hundreds of trees, ripped the roofs off buildings, and twisted billboards in and around Battle Creek, a city of 50,000 about 120 miles west of Detroit. "As of right now we are going around taking trees off of houses, clearing out roadways, and pushing all of the debris aside so emergency vehicles can get to people who need it," said Tyler Upston, 24, who owns a landscaping business in Battle Creek. "Tomorrow we will start the full clean up." About 34,000 people were still without power in Battle Creek's Calhoun County on Monday and "a significant number of Michigan residents are without power throughout the area hit by the storm," said Bob Dukesherer, a senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38626
2471. ILwthrfan
12:49 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Carbon emissions from energy use hit record level, agency says

CNN) -- Carbon emissions from energy use reached a record level last year, up 5% from the previous record in 2008, the International Energy Agency said.

The Paris-based agency called the findings a "serious setback" to limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), which was set at the U.N. climate change talks in Cancun, Mexico, last year.

"Our latest estimates are another wake-up call," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA. "The world has edged incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 ... it will be extremely challenging to succeed in achieving this global goal agreed in Cancun."

Carbon emissions climbed to a record 30.6 gigatonnes in 2010. For the 2-degree goal to remain attainable, emissions in 2020 can't be greater than 32 gigatonnes.

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
2470. caribbeantracker01
12:49 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
i study a bit of cloud structures and looking at the visible sat one can tell that something is trying to form probably the only thing holding it back and at the same time helping it to survive is the location..it is embedded within the itcz.
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
2469. Gearsts
12:46 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Shear doesnt look super strong were the heavy convection is, I'll say 20kt to 25kt.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
2468. caribbeantracker01
12:45 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
actually the low pressure seems to be forming rather fast and soon it will be designated as an invest looking at the rate of thunder storm activity and the current structure of the system!! however i do think it is waiting on one final energy from that wave to its east normally wen thunder storms fire up like this it is an indication it is however fighting of some factors
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
2467. weathermanwannabe
12:42 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
659 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TO GUATEMALA/BELIZE-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING BETWEEN JAMAICA/EASTERN CUBA AND 20N 50W...WITH
MOIST TONGUE ENVELOPING HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SUSTAINS AN ITCZ MOIST SURGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH AXIS APPEARING NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION
.


It's an ITCZ thang............
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9323
2466. weathermanwannabe
12:38 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Good Morning...I think it is going to be a long wait for something in the SW Caribbean. As far as something flourishing later on down the road towards the Gulf, lots of factors against it right now not the least being all of the dry air in that region and the orientation of the current Tutt cell over Cuba and the Yucatan Channel....It's definately a wait and see but I am not holding my breath on this one.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9323
2465. HurricaneSwirl
12:27 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101:


exactly when you mess with the strength of a storm you are also affecting what ends up steering it.


I wasn't aware cloud seeding was actually effective enough to push a tropical cyclone into a different steering level. That's really interesting.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2464. Bitmap7
12:20 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Link to MM5

Link
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2463. islander101010
12:19 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
the low pressure might drag all the moisture north of the greater antillias into to it while also absorbing this low amplitude energy coming from its east. every system during the formation stage are different. just a guess big bend area 10days as a large tropical storm
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4867
2462. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:19 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
blog page update completed for the season come check it out

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
2461. Bitmap7
12:19 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
The MM5 model run has a north then west kind of track

Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2460. hydrus
12:18 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
2459. hydrus
12:16 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting Jax82:
16 hours til Hurricane Season officially starts!
And of course the NOGAPS has a storm down there...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
2458. jasonweatherman2010
12:15 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Link my new blog
Member Since: April 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2278
2457. Jax82
12:11 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
16 hours til Hurricane Season officially starts!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2456. hydrus
12:05 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting IKE:
I hope that moisture from the Caribbean makes it up into the northern GOM. We need some rain.
It appears that low pressure will be sticking around the Western Caribbean for quite some time time...GFS at 216 hours...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21734
2455. IKE
12:03 PM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
I hope that moisture from the Caribbean makes it up into the northern GOM. We need some rain.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2454. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:58 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
It took Alex over a week to develop last year and it was in a better shear environment than our potential Arlene.



Meanwhile, looks interesting, but nothing will come from it...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32508
2453. Bitmap7
11:58 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011


You can see those thunderheads bellowing up in Vis.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2452. IKE
11:56 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED BETWEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIE IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN NW ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. BROAD LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2451. IKE
11:50 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
(CNN) -- Officials in Joplin, Missouri, trimmed the list of people still missing Monday, more than a week after the most-deadly U.S.tornado in more than 60 years tore through the city.

Twenty-nine people remain unaccounted for, down from 43 on Sunday, according to the Missouri Department of Public Safety. That figure includes three people whose families have reported them as dead.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2450. Bitmap7
11:46 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


they both are... they have different color scales.


Thats interesting I never new that they did them in different color scales. The goes site didn't really specify. Thanks for clearing that up. I am gonna stick with mine in that case, when stuff flares up on it, you its hit the fan and is now all over the room.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2449. Thundercloud01221991
11:44 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting Bitmap7:



We obviously are looking at two different images.


Which is correct!?!


they both are... they have different color scales.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2448. IKE
11:35 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2447. Bitmap7
11:31 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Older:


Newer:



We obviously are looking at two different images.


Which is correct!?!
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
2446. Tropicsweatherpr
11:30 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Panama radar.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14550
2445. IKE
11:27 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Bastardi thinks.....twitter style....

Joe Bastardi

Watch the western Caribbean folks.. as if on cue... the tropics will start to light up this week there

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2444. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:21 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Older:


Newer:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32508
2443. IKE
11:20 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Look at it this way....in less than 18 hours the season starts and the NHC will give us their opinion. Thank goodness.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2442. wunderkidcayman
11:18 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
I say at the rate its going we may get 93L today or tonight and TD 1 by Saturday Afternoon/evening
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12353
2441. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:17 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting IKE:

It does seems like a s-l-o-w process. If at all.


Well that is to be expected with monsoonal development...takes a long time to consolidate.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32508
2440. IKE
11:16 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
At the ROI (Rate of organization), I'd say we have TD #1 by next Tuesday.
It does seems like a s-l-o-w process. If at all....although it looks better than yesterday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2439. wunderkidcayman
11:16 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
more purple
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12353
2438. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:12 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
At the ROI (Rate of organization), I'd say we have TD #1 by next Tuesday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32508
2437. IKE
11:09 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
5 day QPF.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2436. IKE
11:03 AM GMT die 31o May, anno 2011
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A STAGNANT WX PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS S FL
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE AT MODEST SPEEDS. SO FOR AT LEAST TODAY,
THE THUNDER CHANCES LOOK SLIM DUE TO THE STRONGER FLOW SO HAVE
SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS
AND
ECMWF KEEP THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING VERY
LITTLE.
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE THAT MAY TAKE PLACE IS AT THE END OF
THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD, A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AS THIS HAPPENS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC RIDGE
TO SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTH FL. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SFC GRADIENT AND
THE LOW LEVEL EAST WIND WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN. BUT UNTIL THEN, THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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