PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:25 PM GMT die 18o May, anno 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor of 2010 as seen from the International Space Station.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

NOAA will be issuing their annual pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecast at 11:30am on Thursday, and I'll make a post on that Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) issues their pre-season forecast on May 24, and Colorado State University issues theirs on June 1.

My next post on the Mississippi flood will be on Friday.

Links:

PSU 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 510 - 460

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Quoting tornadodude:


hey

how have you been?

I havent been on here in forever haha


I know, have missed ya ! Think about ya when the chases are going on. Reed Timmer was In my neck of the woods (in Ms) 2 times in March....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JUNE 2011: temperature 76 ° (1 ° above avg. north, 3 ° below south); precipitation 7" (avg. north, 5" above south); Jun 1-7: T-storms, then sunny, cool; Jun 8-12: Hurricane threat; Jun 13-19: Sunny; cool, then warm; Jun 20-30: Scattered t-storms, seasonable.

From the Farmer's Almanac
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
The NAM likes that first Twave

Here is Sunday

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Only 2 more full shopping days, until we can find out where we're headed......


DWL!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


been a lot of quiet nights lately, hello Twinc, good to see ya.

and a hello to Tornadodude,too


hey

how have you been?

I havent been on here in forever haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


what's on saturday? lol

*returns to lurking


Rapture, as some people say. I say that's BS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No worries, I don't mean to stir the pot. Just a little joke. :)


PSL.. you can stir the pot....please do....too quiet here..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here


No kidding. 2.78 inches total since Jan 1st.

The models are hinting at possibly getting some this weekend, maybe Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here
Hey SP long time no see. How are you and your fine family?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
All quiet here tonight?


been a lot of quiet nights lately, hello Twinc, good to see ya.

and a hello to Tornadodude,too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
499. Jax82
Quoting Patrap:
I have 1-3 and 3 for tonight's Lotto pick 3.


I have a $5 quick pick for powerball, probably going to be a $5 quick loser. If I win, i'll buy everyone a beer, or a rain shower, whichever is preferred.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Please do not bring that back up...the blog is quiet like it is supposed to be.


No worries, I don't mean to stir the pot. Just a little joke. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Area of storms moving off Africa has some vorticity with it

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Only 2 more full shopping days, until we can find out where we're headed......


what's on saturday? lol

*returns to lurking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
I think we are going to see a good chance of an early season ;)


I'm with you, xcool.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Only 2 more full shopping days, until we can find out where we're headed......


Please do not bring that back up...the blog is quiet like it is supposed to be.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453

Only 2 more full shopping days, until we can find out where we're headed......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


ROFDWL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Press, I'ma gonna drive up to Folly and rapture you myself, soon... :)

Hehehehehe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
473

This is the best name-based analysis I've ever read, at least it is a good dosis of humor. LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Bittersweet news.


Lol it's missed, but certainly gets better
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurristat:
Evening all.

Had my last day of high school today.

Bittersweet news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Zelda? lol

What have I missed?


It's obvious... the LEGEND :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good evening all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just want some rain here in The Caymans, its been so dry, an early season weak tropical system with lots of rain would be a welcome relief here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its a win,win when it comes to The Seasons Prep.

Hurricane Preparation 2011


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
457 Pat

Agree completely.

Prognostications not necessary - preparation is.

So run down the checklist (insurance, batteries, canned food, propane, bug spray ...) and if lucky, will get to donate the canned food to someone hungry in about six months.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TexasGulf: one of these years, it's going to fail massively. Storms aren't affected by the names given to them at all. You're correlating things that have no correlation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current Africa ITF almost reaching mean position





Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9695
Heats up - The new Firetree flood maps are now capable of mapping sea level rises worldwide up to 60 metres, for those wanting to inspect the effects of AGW, model tsunami heights or speculate upon implausably large storm surges.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
"analog years" kill me ... they are related in a way to the "thin black line" of the Cone.

so many people focus on the analogs -- hyper focus -- that they come to expect similar results as a matter of science. the same kind of thing happens when people focus on the line of the cone, despite a very clear message not to.

2011 is 2011. analogs, The Chart, etc ... fun facts, the sometimes line up to show correlation, but also many times they do not.


Of course, there's value in looking at the environmental data and analyzing them on their own, but I wouldn't downplay the importance of analog years. They have their place.

Quoting xcool:
14-6-8 2011 hurricane season


2 majors were too cool for hurricane status so they skipped it.

Quoting presslord:


Jeff Masters will be pleased...


Yes, he will :3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
476. xcool
I think we are going to see a good chance of an early season ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
2011 E Pac Names N Hemisphere

Adrian
Beatriz
Calvin
Dora
Eugene
Fernanda
Greg
Hilary
Irwin
Jova
Kenneth
Lidia
Max
Norma
Otis
Pilar
Ramon
Selma
Todd
Veronica
Wiley
Xina
York
Zelda

Zelda? lol

What have I missed?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well guys the best chance of a Invest or TS to form is in the Western Carib this weeking

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WAVE WHEN IT REACHES THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Each of the past two years, I have published MY predictions for the Atlantic Tropical Season. These are based on the belief that storms are influenced by their given name... and they tend to live up or down to that name. This name-based analysis has had an astounding level of accuracy. (notice I didn't say is WAS accurate... and I am easily astounded).

Without further ado... here is my name-based prediction for the Atlantic Tropical Season.

Arlene - a Mid-June surprise for the Texas Gulf Coast. Arlene will start as a mild depression (like most Arlenes) but will quickly form into a strong Cat-1 hurricane that makes landfall around Corpus Christi. The heavy rain is a relief to drought stricken Texas. Arlene will pass through San Antonio and Austin... then rain itself out in the Texas Hill Country. Hurricane Arlene will make news for breaking the Texas drought.

Bret - Bret is easy to spell, so it has to make landfall. However, Bret is just not a hard rocking name. Face it, the storm has issues. Bret will go to the Dominican Republic where it will rain out over the mountains. Bret will briefly re-emerge over the waters South of Florida as a weakling, then will quickly follow the gulf stream North into the Bahamas, then out into the Atlantic.

Cindy - Cindy is a nice, short lived storm. It's not a particularly scary name, nor will it look good on T-shirts... therefor Cindy won't become a hurricane. She will live a short while in the Caribbean as a weak tropical storm, having never really gotten its act together.

Don - Don is the first really good hurricane of the season. It's easy to spell, looks good on T-shirts and lots of words rhyme with "Don". Don will form in the Atlantic and pass North of the islands. It's a manly name, so Don will avoid South Florida and rather head further North toward the Florida / Georgia border as a weak Cat-3 Hurricane.

Emily - Emily isn't easy to spell and doesn't rhyme very well... so it can't become a major. However, Emily's generally have a dark side. She will form only a few days after Don, but somewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Emily will move directly NNE toward Louisiana Bayou country. She will come on shore as a Cat-1 hurricane, but with minimal winds and no damaging rains. Emily will quickly pass through Arkansas and into the mid-West and (as Emily's are generally clean) without hardly leaving damage behind.

Franklin - be serious... Franklin? This weak tropical storm doesn't stand a chance. Franklin is a.k.a. "Franklin the Fish". This one is Atlantic bound. Since Franklin is rarely a leader, it will follow in the low-pressure wake left by Don.

Gert - get ready for Gert. This one is pure Alabama / Florida panhandle. Hurricane Gert has a ring to it and would make a nice HBO special someday... so she will be powerful. It's a Cat-4 storm with a large surge, high winds and lots of damage to the waterfront communities. T-shirts will say "I was hurt by Gert"... or "I got this shirt from Gert". Gert will form in the central Caribbean, fly over Western Cuba and come screaming (like all Gert's do) into Alabama / Florida like a banshee. She will pass quickly, but will leave a trail of destruction from Panama Beach to Myrtle Beach.

Harvey - Hurricane Harvey would be just pathetic... but this one doesn't even make it to that status. Being named "Harvey", he's not welcome along the Gulf Coast, so Harvey has to go up the Eastern Seaboard to New York. It's not a very large or particularly fearsome storm, being just a very weak tropical storm with hurricane ambitions, so most people will just accept the rain and mild winds from "Harvey" and get on with their lives.

Irene - Hurricane Irene is a classic. This one will become a hurricane South of Florida, cross the Gulf and landfall in South-East Texas around Beaumont / Port Arthur area. Although Hurricane Irene is a great name... this one won't quite erase that name from the future storms list. Irene will make landfall as a Cat-2 hurricane, turn a 90-degree angle and run North along the Texas / Louisiana border and rain itself out over Arkansas mountains. Sorry Irene... but the name won't sell movie tickets or T-shirts, so you can't be more than a Cat-2.

Jose - Hurricane Jose will form near the U.S. Virgin Islands, run over the islands of the Greater Antilles. However, Jose is a nice small compact hurricane that doesn't cause problems. As a strong Cat-1, Jose brings rain and winds, but not much damage. Jose finally ends up near Key West, Florida (where else?) where he stalls out over inland Florida for a day before heading N.E. into the Atlantic. Everyone in Florida will have a "Jose" party, thus ending the drought and re-filling Lake Okeechobee.

Katia - We've already had a strong "Katrina"... so we don't need another powerful 'K' name. Besides, Katia doesn't scare anyone and news announcers will keep mis-pronouncing it. Therefore, Katia can't become more than a tropical storm, won't make landfall and in fact will become just another statistic in this season. She forms and diminishes over 3-days in the Atlantic... never even getting within sight of land.

Lee - Hurricane Lee is the next Major of the season. Lee is easy to spell, looks good on T-shirts and rhymes with just about everything... so Lee will take charge. He is the first really strong African Wave to make major hurricane status for the season... and will keep up that status as he charges West across the Atlantic. Lee has to barrel at 18 mph forward speed into South Carolina as a mid-level Cat-3 hurricane. Lee has no other ambitions other than to make landfall... so will fall apart once that goal has been achieved. Lee will make lots of noise and cause conspicuous damage... but nothing serious that can't be easily replaced.

Maria - Maria is a Bay of Campeche storm. She will form up from seemingly nothing... just two clouds meeting at first... but quickly organize. Maria will samba into Northern Mexico as a tropical storm with a little rain, a little wind and a lot of salsa. Maria is gentle, so Northern Mexico will enjoy the late September rains she brings.

Nate - Nate is another serious Cat-3 Hurricane. Plywood on windows will read "I hate Nate". It also rhymes with Fate, Date, Great, Crate, Bait, Rate, State... and it's easy to spell. Therefor, Nate will be a serious storm with even more serious damage. However, Nate's just aren't welcome in Texas or Louisiana. I think Nate is a Mississippi bound hurricane. Nate will give lots of warning as it forms in the Caribbean, passes South of Cuba and doesn't waver an inch on it's path into Mississippi. Nate will become FEMA's biggest problem of the season as it basically gouges up the Mississippi shoreline on it's way inland.

Ophelia - Ophelia is a great name, but too difficult to spell. Plus, it rhymes with dumb words, isn't really an American name and is too hard to spell. Ophelia therefore becomes a small tropical storm that passes briskly over Jamaica, into Cuba but doesn't emerge to form anything more than that. Ophelia will live and die unremembered.

Philippe - Philippe is another "fish storm". Philippe never could get his act together and, like most French, retreats when he should be advancing. Philippe will hit a trough that will pull him North into the mid-Atlantic. He will make Cat-1 hurricane status briefly on his way out to sea.

Rina - Rina is a weird name. Nobody would be afraid of a "Rina" and it won't look good in a documentary. Therefor, Rina will only be a tropical storm. I can't even think of a U.S. state other than Alabama that would welcome a "Rina"... and Alabama is already getting two storms as it is. Rina has to miss the U.S., instead going into the Bahamas as a tropical storm before slowly dying out
over the North Atlantic.

Sean - the last storm of the season, Sean will become our late October hurricane. However, Sean is just too late and the waters are getting too cool so he just doesn't have a chance to develop beyond a weak Cat-2. Sean rains and pouts his way into the Atlantic, having never made landfall.

That's MY season prediction; 18 - 10 - 4.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
470 ~
Quoting presslord:


LoL, You Rapture caster :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting DestinJeff:
"analog years" kill me ... they are related in a way to the "thin black line" of the Cone.

so many people focus on the analogs -- hyper focus -- that they come to expect similar results as a matter of science. the same kind of thing happens when people focus on the line of the cone, despite a very clear message not to.

2011 is 2011. analogs, The Chart, etc ... fun facts, the sometimes line up to show correlation, but also many times they do not.
I dont really like when people post analog tracks to a current storm. However, I dont mind when analog years are used to predict storm numbers.

Of course they're never perfectly necessary, but there is no way to predict numbers in the future without using the past as a basis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Michael Carlson streaming massive tornado-warned storm in Colorado again this evening!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
612 PM MDT WED MAY 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 715 PM MDT

* AT 611 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
HASWELL...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF AROYA
. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AROYA...WILD HORSE AND KIT CARSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would like to thank the folks that took the time and money to travel over to Amelia La to help them with this, if any veiw this blog "Thanks"

Volunteers from St. Tammany and Tangipahoa parishes have traveled south to areas facing floodwaters to help fill sandbags and provide equipment and support.
Truckloads of sand, thousands of bags and a team of volunteers hit the ground Wednesday in Amelia, where rising water from the Morganza Floodway is expected in the coming days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
462. aquak9

I wish I had the time to write it but its 1.30 am here on the hills above Manchester UK. and time to hit the ether and wander in the akashic records yet again.

Night Night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
,,datz why I always do a Platform alignment on the IMU with PB instead of Lox,

heck, the peanut butter will choke ya even faster than the lox.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
And tonight, bringing us the long-awaited Apocalyptic Preview, is PlazaRed!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Quoting Patrap:
I like the articles premise,,intriguing stuff.



Today, Dimitar Ouzounov at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland and a few buddies present the data from... satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up.



For a 16 page PDF copy of
Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary results

go to:

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1105.2841

Warning... this is NOT easy light reading...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Noting the 'full Map,' on the home page:-

I'm a bit out of my tree on this one being new to all this mass of information about everything from doldrums to impending doom. BUT it seems to my innocent and naive eye that there is quite a nasty imbalance in the SSTs of the worlds oceans at the moment and in my way of thinking which was alerted way back about March by learned posters, that if you have a bad imbalance then interesting things might also happen.
We have had 2 notable invests, tornadoes, a few major floods and a lot of bad weather over the US, plus some odd things over Europe as well, fires hail sandstorms etc.
I would be inclined to advance that there will be quite a lot of nasty things coming over the Atlantic this year and maybe 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes resulting from this current atmospheric set up.
Just a thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 510 - 460

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Plerumque Nubila