Mississippi River flood of 2011 already a $2 billion disaster
The Mississippi River continues to rise to heights never seen before along its course through the states of Mississippi and Louisiana. At Natchez, Mississippi, the river has already hit 59 feet, breaking the previous all-time record of 58 feet set in the great 1937 flood. The river is expected to keep rising at Natchez until May 21, when a crest of 64 feet--a full six feet above the previous all-time record--is expected. Record crests are also expected downstream from Natchez, at Red River Landing and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on May 22. Fortunately, the levee system on the Lower Mississippi constructed by the Army Corps of Engineers is built to withstand a greater than 1-in-500 year flood, and this flood is "only" a 1-in-100 to 1-in-300 year flood. However, flooding on tributaries feeding into the Mississippi is severe in many locations along the Mississippi, since the tremendous volume of water confined behind the levees is backing up into the tributaries. Huge quantities of farmland are being submerged in the great flood, and damages already exceed $2 billion. Rainfall amounts of at most 1.25 inches are expected over the Lower Mississippi River watershed over the next five days, which should prevent flood heights from rising above the current forecast.
Figure 1. A crowd of hundreds gathered to watch Monday as the Army Corps of Engineers opened gates on the Bonnet Carre' Spillway to allow flood waters from the Mississippi River to flow into Lake Pontchartrain. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.
Damage from flood over $2 billion, could hit $4 billion
Damage from the Mississippi River flood of 2011 is already over $2 billion, and could surpass $4 billion. Among the damages so far, as reported by various media sources:
$500 million to agriculture in Arkansas
$320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee
$800 million to agriculture in Mississippi
$317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri's Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway
$80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana
The Mississippi River flood of 2011 now ranks as the 10th costliest flooding disaster in the U.S. since 1980, according to The National Climatic Data Center Billion Dollar Weather Disasters list. The top ten most expensive U.S. flood disasters since 1980 are:
1) $30.2 billion, Summer 1993 Upper Mississippi and Midwest flooding
2) $15.0 billion, June 2008 Midwest flooding
3) $7.5 billion, May 1995 TX/OK/LA/MS flooding
4) $4.8 billion, 1997 North Dakota Red River flood
5) $4.1 billion, Winter 1995 California flooding
6) $4.0 billion, January 1996 Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, blizzard rain and snow melt flooding
7) $3.9 billion, Winter 1996 - 1997 West Coast flooding
8) $2.3 billion, Winter 1982 - 1983 El Niño-related West Coast flooding
9) $2.3 billion, May 2010 Tennessee flood
10) $2 billion, May 2011 Mississippi River flood
With the Morganza Spillway, 35 miles upstream from Baton Rouge, likely to be opened sometime between Friday and Tuesday, hundreds of millions more in damage will occur along the Atchafalaya River basin, which will take up to 300,000 cubic feet per second of water out of the Mississippi and funnel it down to the Gulf of Mexico. About 22,500 people and 11,000 structures will be affected by some flooding, according to Governor Jindal of Louisiana. Also of concern is the impact all the fresh water flows from planned diversions of the Mississippi into salt water oyster beds. According to nola.com, fresh water kills oysters because it wreaks havoc on their metabolism, preventing them from keeping a saltwater balance. Increased fresh water diversions in 2010, used to keep the Deepwater Horizon oil spill away from the coast, contributed to a 50% drop in oyster harvests in 2010 compared to 2009. The huge flow of fertilizer-laden fresh water into the Gulf of Mexico is also expected to create a record-size low-oxygen "dead zone" along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. This year's dead zone could be as much as 20 percent greater than the record set in 2002, said Louisiana State University marine biologist Eugene Turner in an article published by nola.com. That year, the low oxygen area stretched over 8,500 square miles, an area the size of New Jersey. Dead zones are due to low oxygen level caused by blooms of algae that feed off all the fertilizers washed off of the farms in the Midwest by the Mississippi River.
A record number of billion-dollar weather disasters for so early in the year
The U.S. has already had five weather disasters costing more than a billion dollars this year, which has set a record for the most number of such disasters so early in the year. We've already beat the total for billion-dollar weather disaster for all of 2010 (three), and with hurricane season still to come, this year has a chance of beating 2008's record of nine such disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1 - $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.7 - $5.5 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($2+ billion)
Losses from the on-going Texas drought and wildfires are already at $180 million, and this is likely to be a billion-dollar disaster by the time all the agricultural losses are tallied.
Good links to follow the flood:
Summary forecast of all crests on Lower Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
Wundermap for Vicksburg, MS with USGS River overlay turned on.
National Weather Service "May 2011 Mississippi River Flood" web page
Jeff Masters
2011 Mississippi River (
tkeith)
Reader Comments
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The main reason the Morganza remains closed is to keep that 70%/30% split between the Miss and the Atchafalaya.
The last time the Morganza was opened, the Old River Control structure almost gave way. This time, with the higher water flow, it MIGHT fail completely.
If it does fail, they may not be able to put the genie back in the bottle, and the Mississippi's path will change forever.
Wow. Over 80% of the state is D3+, and almost HALF of the state is in D4.
And its only May.
When was the last time Texas had a drought this extensive?
When we get droughts in the southeast, that's what fixes it for us, a couple of tropical storm remnants or something....
Wow!
-Wash the car
-Water the lawn
-Fill up the swimming pool
-Plan outdoor activities.
Game, set, match!!
Its hard to find an analogue across the entire state. Most of the analogues I've found deal with just the high plains, or a portion of the state.
Most of the Houston area doesn't have water restrictions (yet).
And for the record, yesterday I washed the cars, mowed the lawn, watered it (overnight), and sacrificed a small grass snake that was trying to "hide" from the mower in the grass... the mower got them.
I don't quite get the whole D0 to D4 drought rating thing....is that how many inches of rain below average? Is D4 mean something like 20 inches below average or something?
Excellent...you're pretty much locked in...maybe leave work early to play a round of golf?
the amount of rain below normal, plus soil moisture, etc..
Dookie! Nice to see you're back, chasing "nuts" again! =)
Perhaps Governor Ricky needs to proclaim another day or two of
rain dancingprayer, since the first time didn't seem to help much (though, to be fair, he did get a few tornadoes in return, so it wasn't all in vain). ;-)Its more of a long-term percentage, combined with recent RH levels and temps. Most of the Houston area is in D4, and one of our airports hasn't had rain in 58 days. (the other is on their 43rd day) Rainfall amounts for the year are abour 8-10" below normal, but we've been riding below normal since October or so. Combine that with abormally hot and very dry weather - and almost constant 10-15kt winds... and you get parched ground.
Areas out west normally get 12-18" of rain per year, so while they may not be as far behind in absolute amounts, in relative amounts they are just as bad.
Me playing golf is more like "lets see how many birds/squirrels/people/trees/cars he can hit with golf balls"
I have an in-ground sprinkler system, so my grass is growing (kinda). Some spots are growing like mad, and others are basically giving me the finger. (generally, the more "protected" spots are growing like crazy, with the areas most exposed to wind are giving me the finger)
I'm keeping my grass cut long (3-1/2" for hybrid Bermudagrass), to conserve moisture. If we start getting consistent rain, I'll work it shorter over a month or so, to a more typical height.
If you have Bermudagrass, you may have just stressed it out more. If you have St. Augustine, you may have saved it.
Nah. Gov. Goodhair will just go to a political rally and promote seceding from the nation will get us more rain, since the evil federal gov't is preventing rain in the state as "punishment".
Profound.
Augustine grass, with some spots of bermuda embeded in it
Thanks...just remember...when you see my avatar in your neighborhood, bad weather (impending DOOM) is on the way. ;-)
Its so much easier with hurricanes, saffir simpson scale proportional to max sustained winds....
LOL....or if you see Jim Cantore.....
And if you see both (Jim and your Avatar), then your in big trouble on the double
No worries, I'm prepared! Got a case of shower curtains in the off season...I will be auctioning them off as DOOM permits...
That would devestate south Louisiana with Flood waters from the north and tidal surge from the gulf. Please think about what you are asking for before you post. How about asking for a trough or front to stall over your area instead.
Yea bermunda is pretty grass, just water it a little and it'll go nuts, thick and green. I actually think SE TX should just convert over to it when they build houses now. Augustine grass can't take the dry spells very well, and since were getting more droughts more frequently it's almost worth getting rid of that augustine grass.
(Shrugging shoulders), no offense, grass is grass to me, LOL.....didn't know there were different types to pick from.....
There has been speculation about the SS scale, like it should be a blend of how bad the winds, storm surge, etc...should be. I wonder if they should have multiple ratings for the same storm, one concerning wind, one concerning storm surge, one concerning rainfall, etc...
ok
I agree. My wife and I bought a new home, and it came with Bermudagrass, so I'm happy. The issue behind changing over is that St. Augustine is so cheap. Then again, in many other areas of the country, its a weed.
Also, if you have ever looked through the fertilizer section at your local home improvement store, there is a LOT of specialized fertilizer for St. Augustine (Scotts Bonus S), but very little in the way of weed & feed for Bermuda.
All that said, Bermuda does have some drawbacks, namely in that it is SO aggressive, and will happily invade gardens, landscaping, and it needs more edging.
Oh, definitely. St. Augustine is cheap but has coarse blades. Bermuda loves sun, is aggressive, and has rather fine blades. Zoysia likes more shade, has finer blades than Bermuda, but stinks in drought. And thats just the "recommended" varieties for the Houston area.
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