The nation's unprecedented April tornado-fest continued full force last night, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 57 tornado reports, 295 cases of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 254 reports of large hail. The 2-day tornado count from this latest huge April tornado outbreak is already 102. With another "high risk" forecast for tornadoes today, the tornado total for this week's outbreak may rival the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak (155 confirmed tornadoes) as the greatest April tornado outbreak in history. It is unprecedented to have two such massive tornado outbreaks occur so close together, and the April preliminary tornado count of 654 is truly stunning. Even adjusting this number downwards 15% (the typical over-count in preliminary tornado reports) yields a probable April tornado total of 550. This easily crushes the previous April tornado record of 267, set in 1974. An average April has "only" 163 tornadoes, so we are already 300% over average for the month, and may approach 400% after today's outbreak. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). One positive note--there has only been one violent EF-4 or stronger tornado this year, despite the fact we've already had about 2/3 of the 1200 tornadoes one typically gets for the entire year. Over the past 20 years, we've averaged 7 violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes per year, so we should have had 4 or 5 of these most dangerous of tornadoes so far this year.
Figure 1. Satellite image of last night's storm at 8pm EDT April 26, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Fortunately, no one was killed in last night's tornado frenzy, but four twisters caused injuries, with 7 injuries in Hesterman, Mississippi, and 3 in Beekman, Louisiana. Over 100 homes were damaged when a tornado struck Edom, Texas, approximately 75 miles East of Dallas. One woman was injured when her mobile home was destroyed. The only killer tornado of the current outbreak occurred on Monday night at 7:30 pm CDT when a 1/2 mile-wide EF-2 tornado struck the small town of Vilonia, Arkansas. Four people died in the town, where 50 - 80 buildings were destroyed. Tornado warnings were issued 30 minutes before the storm hit, contributing to the relatively low loss of life.
Figure 2. Storm chaser video of a tornado yesterday in Ben Wheeler, Texas.
Another very dangerous tornado outbreak expected today
The busiest April in history for tornadoes continues full-force today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of severe weather potential, a "High Risk" forecast, for Northern Alabama, Southern Tennessee, and adjoining portions of Georgia and Mississippi. This is the second day in a row, and third time this year, that SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast. The devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 confirmed tornadoes that killed 24 people in North Carolina and 2 people in Virginia, was the other "high risk" day. Numerous tornado warnings have already been issued in Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, and Alabama this morning, but today's main action is expected to erupt late this afternoon as the cold front from a low pressure system currently over Arkansas moves eastwards over the "high risk" area. Strong daytime heating in a very moist, unstable airmass will allow a tremendous amount of energy to build up ahead of the front. The arrival of the cold front will force the warm, moist air upwards, allowing the pent-up energy to burst out and fuel supercell thunderstorms.
Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?
Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, April 27, 2011.
Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio River
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past few days, and one levee breach at Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, has resulted in the evacuation of over 500 homes. Poplar Bluff has received 15.45" of rain since Friday morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 19.70" inches has fallen since Friday morning.
Figure 4. The latest River Flood Outlook from NOAA shows major flooding is occurring over many of the nation's major rivers.
Extraordinary intentional levee breach of Mississippi River halted by lawsuit
In a sign of just how extreme this flooding situation is, yesterday the Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for flood control efforts on the Mississippi River, announced plans to intentionally destroy a levee protecting the west bank of the Mississippi River in Southwest Missouri. The destruction of the levee is intended to relieve pressure on the levees at Cairo, Illinois, at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Cairo is currently under a voluntary evacuation order. The levee to be destroyed, located at Birds Point, is called a "fuse-plug" levee, and was designed to be destroyed in the event of a record flood. The levee protects 132,000 acres of prime farmland along the New Madrid Spillway, which is designed to take 550,000 cubic feet per second of water flow out of the Mississippi and redirect it down a 3 - 10 mile wide, 36 - 56 mile long path along the west side of the Mississippi. An 11-mile long section of the levee upstream at Birds Point, and 5-mile long stretch at the downstream end, are set two feet lower than the surrounding levees and filled with holes to accommodate dynamite. These levees will be destroyed if the Army Corps has its way, but a lawsuit by the state of Missouri is currently blocking the way. The Army Corps has now agreed to wait until Saturday to decide whether or not to blow the levee. The Army Corps' website has an unofficial damage estimate of $100 million for destroying the levees and flooding the New Madrid Spillway. At least 100 people live in the spillway and have been evacuated, and it would likely take many years for the farms to recover after flooding. The levees have been blown and the spillway opened only once before, back during the record flood of 1937.
Midwest deluge enhanced by near-record Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures
The deluge of rain that caused this flood found its genesis in a flow of warm, humid air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs )in the Gulf of Mexico are currently close to 1 °C above average. Only two Aprils since the 1800s (2002 and 1991) have had April SSTs more than 1 °C above average, so current SSTs are among the highest on record. These warm ocean temperatures helped set record high air temperatures in many locations in Texas yesterday, including Galveston (84°F, a tie with 1898), Del Rio (104°F, old record 103° in 1984), San Angelo (97°F, old record 96° in 1994). Record highs were also set on Monday in Baton Rouge and Shreveport in Louisiana, and in Austin, Mineral Wells, and Cotulla la Salle in Texas. Since this week's storm brought plenty of cloud cover that kept temperatures from setting record highs in many locations, a more telling statistic of how warm this air mass was is the huge number of record high minimum temperature records that were set over the past two days. For example, the minimum temperature reached only 79°F in Brownsville, TX Monday morning, beating the previous record high minimum of 77°F set in 2006. In Texas, Austin, Houston, Port Arthur, Cotulla la Salle, Victoria, College Station, Victoria, Corpus Christi, McAllen, and Brownsville all set record high minimums on Monday, as did New Orleans, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, and Alexandria in Louisiana, as well as Jackson and Tupelo in Mississippi. Since record amounts of water vapor can evaporate into air heated to record warm levels, it is not a surprise that incredible rains and unprecedented floods are resulting from this month's near-record warm SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Figure 5. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for April 25, 2001. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Fierce winds fan Texas, New Mexico fires
Fierce winds fanned raging fires across eastern New Mexico and Western Texas yesterday, thanks to a powerful flow of air feeding into the Midwestern storm system. Temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with humidities less than 10% combined to make yesterday a nightmare fire day for firefighters attempting to control the worst springtime fires in the history of the region. At 3:53 pm MDT yesterday in Carlsbad, New Mexico, the temperature was 87°F, winds were 38 mph gusting to 46, and the humidity was 8%--a perfect storm for extreme fire weather. In Fort Stockton, Texas near the huge Rock House fire, the temperature was 91°F, winds were 35 mph gusting to 44, visibility was reduced to 5 miles due to haze and smoke, and the humidity was 5% at 5:53pm CDT. According to the Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in 2011 have already burned nearly 2.3 million acres in the U.S. This is the greatest acreage on record so early in the year, and is more area than burned all of last year. The largest U.S. acreage to burn since 1960 was the 9.9 million acres that burned in 2007, so we area already 25% of the way to the all-time record fire year--with summer still more than a month away. The fire weather forecast for today is better then yesterday, with winds not expected to blow nearly as strong.
Figure 6. Major wildfires and smoke plumes as visualized using our wundermap with the "fire" layer turned on.
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.
Jeff Masters
I haven't seen a storm like this in quite some time. Still no rain in Seguin, Tx. Pic taken in Seguin storm near Martindale.
Mississippi @ Burlington (
BURGuy)
Seating along the shore
Taken within minutes after the storm cell had passed directly overhead.
This is a shot of a lightning strike associated with some severe storms moving through this evening in Southaven, MS.
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From your post this morning:
The devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 confirmed tornadoes that killed 24 people in North Carolina and 2 people in Virginia...
...Even adjusting this number downwards 15% (the typical over-count in preliminary tornado reports) yields a probable April tornado total of 550...
Were the 52 confirmed tornadoes for the entire multi-state outbreak or only those that were confirmed in North Carolina?
Raleigh, NC April 16th Tornado Summary
click for storm reports
Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.
SPC Storm Reports
If the 52 confirmed tornadoes represent a total for the entire one day outbreak, the preliminary count would have to be reduced by about 63%.
yes
80.6 on Florida Big Bend coast yesterday afternoon, and, a 5 foot Bull Shark that circled me two times before cruising on....
Sony: Personal info compromised on PSN
EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO
POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)
ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS
SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN`T STRESS ENOUGH HOW
DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF
STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID
SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.
This will also contribute to the formation of tornadoes...
Then it would be debatible?? to assume that:
Link
However, this increase (number of tornadoes) may be entirely caused by factors unrelated to climate change:
1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.
2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, has resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.
3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.
and can you say ewwwww
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231...
DISCUSSION...A VERY VOLATILE SETUP IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF MS
LATER TODAY AS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNS INTO AN
AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
AR/NORTHEAST LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
START BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS WHERE DISCRETE
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG/VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
This year is HOT!
You have a valid point. However, the new record numbers are so substantial that it you could still take your factors into account and realize that what's happening now is extraordinary.
One will be surprised as to the answer.
Go forth and be fruitful today.
co2now.org
Atmospheric CO2 for March 2011
Preliminary data released April 6, 2011 (Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
Thanks, Levi. That's interesting.
Corps to blow Southeast Missouri levee to relieve surging river?
On Tuesday evening, Delta Farm Press spoke with Jim Pogue, the Corps’ Public Affairs Specialist for the Memphis District, about the levee set-up, expectations and the Corps’ utmost concern...
How is the levee set up and how this would take pressure off the river? I understand this was constructed purposely a long time ago.
“It was actually set up after the 1927 flood. It was only operated once, in 1937...
Puts me athought... the applicable regulations go back to 1928, the year after the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927.
As the flood approached New Orleans, Louisiana, about 30 tons of dynamite were set off on the levee at Caernarvon, Louisiana... intended to prevent New Orleans from experiencing serious damage, but flooded much of St. Bernard Parish and all of Plaquemines Parish's east bank. As it turned out, the destruction of the Caernarvon levee was unnecessary; several major levee breaks well upstream of New Orleans, including one the day after the demolitions, made it impossible for flood waters to seriously threaten the city.
Randy Newman, Louisiana 1927.
Just my two pennies, but wouldn't that correlate into the possibility for increased storms to be developed in the GOM this year?
Thx for the post Levi! Just added another bookmark.
All waters east, west, south and northeast of FL are all 1-2 degrees C above normal. Guh.
Stay up on the Local weather.
Know where to go in case a warning is issued or conditions warrant action.
Um, do you ever read Dr. Masters' blogs?
Temp: 84
Dewpoint: 70
Wind: South at 23mph Gust 40mph
Barometric Pressure: 29.68
A "particularly dangerous situation watch" is issued when there is a high risk of multiple strong tornadoes.
Yeah, you don't want to be one of those people who as last resort are hunkering down in a ditch with their hands on their heads. (This is Option #3.)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231...
Just want to point out, Masters points this out frequently as well, preliminary reports are NO LONGER purged. I agree that this has been an extremely active spring severe season, but the reporting structure has been altered significantly for this season. We need to wait for final numbers before making historical claims.
... Record warm low temperature tied at Daytona Beach yesterday... The low temperature of 72 degrees on Tuesday April 26th at Daytona Beach... tied the warm low record for the date previously set in 1929.
It's 90 degrees here today just south of Daytona along the beach.
Right, and this is assuming that a storm is developed outside the GOM. Once it reaches the gulf, with SSTs the way they are and the right conditions, it's almost a given that not only would it sustain, but rapidly intensify.
My main question is, do the higher SSTs have any correlation to systems actually developing IN the GOM?
AFAIK, many of those clouds over the highest development region are high clouds (cirrus and the like), and won't have as much impact on convective heating as a layer of low clouds (such as stratocumulus) would.
[edit: After checking, most of the clouds are low, but not terribly thick. I checked several cities on the Mississippi side of the highest chances, and their temps are solidly in the 70s and 80s, and dewpoints are VERY high - 65 . Based on that, and most of the clouds being between "few" and "broken", I think the SPC is right about the chances.]
I know somebody yesterday who was about to do Option #3 but couldn't due to 4 feet of water in the ditch. Fortunately the tornado didn't get close enough to him.
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