97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.
Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.
Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
... AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...
.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE CONTINUING DROUGHT THIS WILL CREATE THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 PM AST MON OCT 4 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST...WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY...BEFORE FILLING. THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE
TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...TO PRODUCE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
Good question. But I assume he means that it will not be a threat to the CONUS.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
It seems that the prognosis for the Atlantic, that we are in for late season storms is accurate. Activity will not only be in the western Caribbean, but also generated by activity in the Atlantic. So don't get bored yet! We here continue to look to the east.
I can't work tonite on the Night Shift.... I'm gonna leave the main blog alone for awhile....
What the hell we gonna do.....:)
remember hurricane michelle? 2001 it did
And to think, I was glad it was just 79 lol!
Windsor residents clean up after flooding
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.
Invest 97L getting better organized; central Atlantic disturbance fizzling
See Taz, got to wait till they are really dead to Rip em XD
I bit my tongue several times :P
tonight should be interesting
Ya go to my blog and check out the models.
AMY - WHERE'S the darn fork!
Hi,welcome to the WU blog ,im guessing your from Barbados?
Here in Trinidad w'ere having a break from the rainy season.Although last night was a mess,but yea if your from windwards then you know that come the 2nd week (at least here) in October rainfall starts to increase again peaking in late November and droping off by mid December drastically.
I guess Cuba doesn't count as land.
Could be upped to 50% by 2am.
I think we are gonna need a little more than 40% to wake us up. LOL
Yeah, depends on how well it does during D-max, but the great thing is we got radar, way better to see how it is really doing under all the cirrus. :]
Ah I see it. Thoughts on it? jw
Greetings to you, and the Bajan Lady....
Been a really nice day here, after that incredible light-show over Venezuela last evening that migrated all the way from NW through W, S, and then SE by late last night.
Fantastic lightning that went on for hours....
Neither would Nicaragua or the Bahamas I guess...
Good Evening Everybody.
Link
I saw it too, seems to be close to St Croix.
Was hoping to go camping...and the campfire is usually our "stove" for at least part of our menu...
some interesting discussion (I thought so, anyhow) this morning on the blog.
On whether or not the season has lived-up to 'expectations', and if not, why not?.
Some good points by Neopolitan and others.
I think it is safe to say, that there was no firm consensus.......
Two wunderbloggers, three opinions.
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index