97L still disorganized, but bringing heavy rains to the northeast Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:27 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010

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A large region of disturbed weather (Invest 97L) covers the Lesser Antilles Islands and waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic today. These showers can be seen on Martinique radar this morning, and Martinique reported a wind gust of 35 mph this morning during one of 97L's heavy squalls. An upper level trough of low pressure is contributing to the heavy rain showers by making the atmosphere more unstable. This same trough is also bringing moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which will keep any development today very slow to occur. Recent satellite imagery shows a large area of intense thunderstorms associated with 97L, but the activity is not well organized, and there are no signs of a surface circulation. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows no signs of rotation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather near 10N, 47W is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed northwest into a region of even higher wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite imagery shows only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, and there is plenty of dry air in the vicinity that is interfering with development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central or Southern Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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ATCF says 97L is still at 25 knots and 1007mb:

AL, 97, 2010100500, , BEST, 0, 176N, 651W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 240, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
TOUCHDOWN!! 'Fins!
now you must really be bored
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

We are not THAT bored....


what up pott! I am bored enough to drink another!

Cheerssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
414. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

We are not THAT bored....


ha! XD LOL!

I'm not bored at all :]
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I guess Cuba doesn't count as land.


oh yes Cuba does count as land ...what i ment by going out to sea is it did not hit the con us
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1820
Quoting pottery:

We are not THAT bored....


Nicely put. Evening Pottery, How's it going, in your neck of the woods?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the COC of 97L at 16.8N 63.9W and not moving
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Pottery - About the only thing I can say that is true about this blog 100% of the time is that there isn't a consensus....

Two wunderbloggers, three opinions.
Quoting TxKeef:


That's on a good day.

True, true....
LOL to you both.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
405. JLPR2


Dry air is slowly moving out.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Low shear now 50% at 2am hmm.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006
Quoting Dakster:
Pottery - About the only thing I can say that is true about this blog 100% of the time is that there isn't a consensus....

Two wunderbloggers, three opinions.


That's on a good day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have the center east of Puerto Rico.

~18N, 64.5W based on Puerto Rico Radar and satellite.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23010
401. Dakster
12:44 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Pottery - About the only thing I can say that is true about this blog 100% of the time is that there isn't a consensus....

Two wunderbloggers, three opinions.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9661
400. pottery
12:42 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
For those who missed it, and have nothing to do ...
some interesting discussion (I thought so, anyhow) this morning on the blog.
On whether or not the season has lived-up to 'expectations', and if not, why not?.
Some good points by Neopolitan and others.

I think it is safe to say, that there was no firm consensus.......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
398. atmoaggie
12:33 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps:
And the rest of it:

... AN OUTDOOR BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...

.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE CONTINUING DROUGHT THIS WILL CREATE THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.
I wonder if that will still be in place this weekend (maybe) and will apply to camp fires at state parks (probably)...

Was hoping to go camping...and the campfire is usually our "stove" for at least part of our menu...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
396. WeatherNerdPR
12:29 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting Gearsts:
You can see the low 97L on the PR long range radar is looking better.

I saw it too, seems to be close to St Croix.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
395. Gearsts
12:27 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
You can see the low 97L on the PR long range radar is looking better.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1006
394. JLPR2
12:24 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Winds shifted to the west on buoy 42060, meaning there is a low to its north, the buoy is at 16°30'0" N 63°30'0" W

Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
392. WeatherNerdPR
12:22 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I guess Cuba doesn't count as land.

Neither would Nicaragua or the Bahamas I guess...
Good Evening Everybody.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
391. pottery
12:20 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting DDR:

Hi,welcome to the WU blog ,im guessing your from Barbados?
Here in Trinidad w'ere having a break from the rainy season.Although last night was a mess,but yea if your from windwards then you know that come the 2nd week (at least here) in October rainfall starts to increase again peaking in late November and droping off by mid December drastically.

Greetings to you, and the Bajan Lady....
Been a really nice day here, after that incredible light-show over Venezuela last evening that migrated all the way from NW through W, S, and then SE by late last night.
Fantastic lightning that went on for hours....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
390. caneswatch
12:19 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya go to my blog and check out the models.


Ah I see it. Thoughts on it? jw
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
389. txjac
12:15 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
I am so loving this fall weather here in Houston ...iit needs to be like this all the time...btw, anyone know how long its gonna last? Thanks and good evening/afternoon/morning to all
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
388. JLPR2
12:13 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting tropicfreak:


Could be upped to 50% by 2am.


Yeah, depends on how well it does during D-max, but the great thing is we got radar, way better to see how it is really doing under all the cirrus. :]
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
387. tropicfreak
12:13 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hope this wakes up the blog.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.


I think we are gonna need a little more than 40% to wake us up. LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
386. tropicfreak
12:12 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
Slight improvement in Wind Shear



tonight should be interesting


Could be upped to 50% by 2am.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
384. 954FtLCane
12:10 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting weatherlover94:


remember hurricane michelle? 2001 it did

I guess Cuba doesn't count as land.
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
382. DDR
12:09 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting Bjanmama:
Hello everyone! this is my first post of the season ( sort of late for the party/fete!) While everyone from the N.Leewards,Virgin Islands and P.R. keep wondering "where's the beef", seems like 97L broke off from a mushrooming trough,Low and active moving convection from Venezuela etc. in the Eastern Caribbean and slip-slidded under those islands- who are beginning to get not so much moisture from 97l but from this monstrous system that sluglike is now moving NW. Meanwhile more convectionis in the making for us- and further concern is the Low at 45 around 13 to add to the fun. I find the CONUS posts amusing re lack of anything to report except falling tempertures, since we have been deluged by flash floods, extreme thunderstorms and periods of very heavy rains since Friday, anything but boring. The prognosis for much of October is the same. It is beginning to cause serious problems- for example today virtually everything was closed, but many businesses said they would open after 12pm as that is when the flash flood warning was supposed to end.

It seems that the prognosis for the Atlantic, that we are in for late season storms is accurate. Activity will not only be in the western Caribbean, but also generated by activity in the Atlantic. So don't get bored yet! We here continue to look to the east.

Hi,welcome to the WU blog ,im guessing your from Barbados?
Here in Trinidad w'ere having a break from the rainy season.Although last night was a mess,but yea if your from windwards then you know that come the 2nd week (at least here) in October rainfall starts to increase again peaking in late November and droping off by mid December drastically.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1625
381. Dakster
12:07 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Are we at doomcon 4 yet? Medium chance of development now...


AMY - WHERE'S the darn fork!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9661
380. TampaSpin
12:06 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Quoting caneswatch:


Great, I think they'll win it all. BTW, I heard there are models developing something?


Ya go to my blog and check out the models.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
379. JLPR2
12:01 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Slight improvement in Wind Shear



tonight should be interesting
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
378. BDADUDE
12:01 AM GMT die 05o October, anno 2010
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
377. JLPR2
11:57 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
97L back lol i did not think it will go up too 40%


See Taz, got to wait till they are really dead to Rip em XD
I bit my tongue several times :P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
376. MiamiHurricanes09
11:56 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
Blog Update

Invest 97L getting better organized; central Atlantic disturbance fizzling
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
375. Tazmanian
11:52 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
97L back lol i did not think it will go up too 40%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114040
373. CybrTeddy
11:51 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
Hope this wakes up the blog.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23010
371. plywoodstatenative
11:43 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
Even though its to the east what are the steering winds in that area?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
370. DontAnnoyMe
11:39 PM GMT die 04o October, anno 2010
Eastern NC recovery in progress

Windsor residents clean up after flooding
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.