Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:45 PM GMT die 06o August, anno 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1709. EricSFL
Quoting TampaSpin:
The NOGAP model still has 93L moving nearly due West.......HUM....NOGAP model is a very conservative model which rarely show much unless something is there and present. Just sayin.


IMO all the NOGAPS does is continuously develop systems off the coast of Nicaragua.
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1708. xcool


nice..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1707. BDAwx
Bermudian authorities have a habit of waiting until the last minute to declare emergency measures that actually have an impact on our schedules. I mean in some respects this is a good thing but it is an inconvenience to be rushing around at the last minute. EG. closing the airport or causeway

Bermuda has a great history in the tropics as a colony and as a landmass being affected by storms.
Bermudians supposedly had colonies in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos as one point! Bermuda was populated after a ship ran aground in Bermuda because it was blown off course by a major hurricane.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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PM =JVF don't ask me for the math. Lastly for tonight maybe 93L will break the drought in Russia.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


None of the models i looked at show this yet. Gotta say tho that a stalled Frontal boundary will probably be in the area and on the tail end that possiblity would be present and if stalled over a period of time something could work its way down to the surface but, it would take some time.


It was ABC40. They mentioned it and showed it on their futurecast thingamajigger as well. Developing Sunday and bringing rain on Sunday and Monday before drifting west. Just wondered if any long range models had this stalling and coming back or what? But apparently, it must just be them at this point. They didn't have a label on their graphic.
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The NOGAP model still has 93L moving nearly due West.......HUM....NOGAP model is a very conservative model which rarely show much unless something is there and present. Just sayin.
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1702. xcool
EricSFL hey & JLPR2 .good time what my son today .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1701. EricSFL
Quoting BDADUDE:

WHATS A JFV?


A "person" that has about 1,000 handle names on this blog.
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1700. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
hey all.long day


hello! :D
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so what does everyone think about middle peninsula of florida such as tampa will there be a major hurricane due to the trough
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Quoting PsychicMaria:


Scientists is what you'd all LIKE to be called. However, you are merely a group full of severe weather fanatics, with the exception of few. Whenever a severe thunderstorm is coming, you love it, especially if it has wind. The though of a hurricane coming excites you, I know. Keep waiting anxiously for these storms. Though I caution you, scientist...be careful what you wish for; even if its just in your thoughts.


Well you are not very good at this at all!!! you may need to go back to psychic training or something...... You are way off in my case... but I guess I didnt have to tell you that... did I... Hmmmm. Well, good luck with your hobby
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1696. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
hey all.long day


Hey xcool! just in time.
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1695. robj144
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Scientists is what you'd all LIKE to be called. However, you are merely a group full of severe weather fanatics, with the exception of few. Whenever a severe thunderstorm is coming, you love it, especially if it has high wind. Oh and those red flashy warning on the bottom of the television screen; oh what a sight. The thought of a hurricane coming excites you, I know. Keep waiting anxiously for these storms. Though I caution you, scientist...be careful what you wish for; even if its just in your thoughts.


No, I'm an actual scientist.
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1694. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting BradentonBrew:
Local TV (Sarasota, FL) mentioned a tropical system developing in the GOM, just west of Tampa and drifting westward. Can anybody advise on this and are any long-range models picking this up?


None of the models i looked at show this yet. Gotta say tho that a stalled Frontal boundary will probably be in the area and on the tail end that possiblity would be present and if stalled over a period of time something could work its way down to the surface but, it would take some time.
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1692. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1690. xcool



gom storms.maybe
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1688. xcool
hey all.long day
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
"Wunderground F5's the NHC into submission"
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1685. EricSFL
We need xcool posting the model runs...
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Wait CyberTeddy, didn't we already do that?
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Local TV (Sarasota, FL) mentioned a tropical system developing in the GOM, just west of Tampa and drifting westward. Can anybody advise on this and are any long-range models picking this up?
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Quoting robj144:


Ok, convince me. What will be the number one news story on CNN in exactly 48 hours from now?


Weather Underground becomes the first website where its members crashed a governmental site (NHC)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
1679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
PsychicMaria wait iam gettin a vision here it is soon you will be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head
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Quoting PsychicMaria:


Robert, I do not perform these types of readings. Nature is my area of focus, although I do perform general psychic readings, tarot card readings, etc. I even have my own business, which is quite successful, for I am great at what I do. Again. I will say ignorance is bliss. Test my gift all you may. I'll have you know, my great grandmother saved lives here in the United States before a single hurricane tracking tool ever existed.


Well, your in a room full of scientist.. Tough crowed for a psychic!! sorry tough to swallow...

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Anyway, Sammy et al... that's my cue to exit stage right. I'll see anybody who's up in the a.m. in the a.m.....

Have a ball, kids!
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Quoting hurrkat05:
yes i can tell you for sure texas will have no more tropical activity this year it has to do woth how the azore -bermuda highis setting up teaxas will always be in the clear..extreme slight possibility to the upper texascoast i...


Such a forecast should include the following exceptions: All tropical weather that is not impacted by the Bermuda high alignment or tropical weather originating in the Caribbean or GOM
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1672. NotJFV
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Go the Filter Tab and Click SHOW ALL.

Thanks... I enjoy reading all comments on this blog..... I learn a lot a......and if the make me laugh or annoy well thats all good...lol!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I Think they just cancled all arrivals.

Heres their airport:



Link
Close to midnight? Yeah sounds about right. I know they will fly as long as the controllers think it's OK. When are TS force winds supposed to begin impacting BDA? I know BDAwx was talking about 3-5 foot seas since this p.m......
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Quoting ho77yw00d:



WOW you know what I am out of here tonight! you have no right to talk about him he did nothing to you and I respect his "opinions"
grow up I mean really just grow up.. he is a very smart kid he knows a heck lot more then me... I would tell you where to go but looking at your avatar your already there!!

POOF


Very clever
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NOTJFV at the top of the reader comment screen in the right hand corner is says "filter" change it to show all
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Quoting btwntx08:

???


Yeeessss? lol. What part was not understandable?
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1663. NotJFV
ok.. I';ll ask again... how can I make all postings visible... most of the are hidden now and I have to click the show button to see them......
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1662. robj144
Quoting PsychicMaria:
Those who do not believe; ignorance is bliss.


Ok, convince me. What will be the number one news story on CNN in exactly 48 hours from now?
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1660. robj144
Quoting hurrkat05:
yes i can tell you for sure texas will have no more tropical activity this year it has to do woth how the azore -bermuda highis setting up teaxas will always be in the clear..extreme slight possibility to the upper texascoast i...


You what? You left us hanging there with the ellipses.
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Heck Colin might just miss Bermuda on the East side of Bermuda......I could not understand how some had Colin coming toward the ConUs.

I posted the track of Colin on July 29th....came very close i believe....sometimes one gets lucky i guess. One can also see the track on that date of 92L!



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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