Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:45 PM GMT die 06o August, anno 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2208. PanhandleChuck
04:26 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Any more info on the possibility of a backyard storm forming in the GOM from the trough hanging around the area?
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2207. stillwaiting
04:26 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
local met here in swfl calling for a possible tropical low to form in the eastern gom or over fl and track westerly either late weekend early next week!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2206. Hurricanes101
04:26 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting extreme236:
12z GFS again moves a vigorous tropical wave off the African coast in 72 hours, but drops it by 120 hours.


this upgrade the GFS has been terrible in my opinion
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
2205. Hurricanes101
04:25 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
2204. extreme236
04:24 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
12z GFS again moves a vigorous tropical wave off the African coast in 72 hours, but drops it by 120 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2203. kmanislander
04:24 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Good afternoon

What an odd start to the season. Apart from Alex, everything else that has come along has struggled to organize and those that have managed to do so have faltered very quickly.

92L pretty much evaporated again last night in an area of the Caribbean that historically is favourable for development. 93L is not much to write home about and Colin is hanging on by a thread, again.

The feature that will probably be designated 94L later today ( assuming it too doesn't collapse ) seems to be the next potential long range threat. Convection has diminished overnight as the heat of the day out in the far East Atl set in so we will have to wait and see how it fares over the course of the next 12 hours or so.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
2202. taco2me61
04:23 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting patrikdude2:
Where is Dr.Master's update?

Its coming. I think he is getting all his information together with Colin, 93L and soon -to-be 94L..... Lots of Info to get....

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3242
2201. patrikdude2
04:19 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Where is Dr.Master's update?
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
2200. psuweathernewbie
04:17 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.


Drak, perhaps an equatorward outflow channel developing, northern side is not so fortunate given the presence of dry air. However with time this will develop as well, perhaps a system like this will look similar to Katrina of 2005 after she moved through Florida, in structre given that she had dry air problems early on in her lifespan and looked like a commahead.
2199. SLU
04:17 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence


Pre-Dean also had a very similar structure.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
2197. extreme236
04:16 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I bet the NHC doesn't even mention it in the 2pm TWO


At least the NHC tagged it as a tropical wave a couple hours ago. Makes me think that they're at least keeping some sort of eye on it.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2196. ColdInFL
04:15 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Extreme weather kills wildlife:

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
2195. Hurricanes101
04:14 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.


I bet the NHC doesn't even mention it in the 2pm TWO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
2194. psuweathernewbie
04:14 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
extreme236 I agree high chance seems reasonable at this time for 93L. The wave near 30W now has a surface low, and could be closed, convection after waning some at DMIN, has become more concetrated near this low and could become an invest shortly and be given at least a 30% chance of development at the 2pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Colin is trying to reorganize once again, with convection seeming to try to wrap around at least the eastern side of the circulation.
2193. Drakoen
04:11 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
2192. extreme236
04:08 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
93L is a small storm...convection has increased slightly throughout the morning. I'd give this a high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next day or so.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2191. psuweathernewbie
04:07 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Future 94L southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and SE of 93L is in an environment conducive for tropical cyclone development. Currently shear is a little high if one was to trust the CIMSS products, but by looking the current presentation of this wave near 30W/13N suggests that conditions are less unfavorable then analyzed. SSTs are roughly 27-28C which favors a tropical storm strength system until 50W where SSTs gradually warm to 29C and then 30C as you enter the Caribbean Sea. I expect Danielle or Earl to develop from this wave, as organization appears to be quick, no major intensification expected until 50W longitude. This system appears to be heading west roughly at 10-15mph and expected to stay this course the next three days. Circulations from 500-850mb are pretty much vertically aligned with one another with the 700mb circulation currently most potent. This could become our first potential threatening hurricane, Major hurricane status given environment ahead.
2190. extreme236
04:06 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence


Yes it could be a coincidence lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2189. 7544
04:05 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
nice graghics all star keep up the good work

look like we will see 94l latter today and thats the one to watch dont think that one will be a fish

93l is kinda iffy for now for the track imo looks like new models want to take it further west
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
2187. stoormfury
04:03 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2636
2185. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03:54 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
THE INVEST TO WATCH ITS INVEST 94L AT 30 WEST ITS WILL BE INVEST 94l soon by sunday morning..
there is no 94l what are you talking about cause whatever it is its nothing right now but a area of interest nothing more


NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN) Warning
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SAT 07 Aug 2010 15:00:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
2184. Walshy
03:50 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Coastal Hazard Statement

Statement as of 10:49 AM EDT on August 07, 2010

... High rip current risk in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...

Long period swells coming from Tropical Storm Colin... combined
with astronomical tides from a new moon will produce a high risk
of rip currents for the North Carolina beaches from Surf City to
Cape Fear.
The most dangerous time for rip currents will be in a
two hour window either side of low tide... which will occur around
1130 am this morning. Anyone venturing to the beach should stay
out of the water.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing away from
shore... which occur most often at low spots or breaks in The
Sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins...
jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach
patrol. Pay attention to flags and posted signs. Rip currents
can become life threatening
to anyone who enters the surf.



Please visit the following website to share your thoughts on the
new rip current hazard:

Http://www.Weather.Gov/survey/NWS-survey.Php?Code=rcvtecchm
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
2183. SLU
03:49 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
the cape verde disturbance could be the classic cape verde hurricane. conditions ahead of the system is conducive for development. the ridge is expected to streghen and move west which will keep this disturbance on atrack that could bring it close to the lesser antilles. although at the moment there is no model support for the system. i exect that to change as soon as the designation to 94l comes about.


The GFS keeps it was a disorganised wave and moves it westwards very quickly about 20mph to around 12n 45w by Tuesday. Let's see how things pan out after that.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
2182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03:46 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
04L/TS/C stationary
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
2181. CycloneUK
03:44 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
erm...eye?

Member Since: March 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2179. stoormfury
03:43 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
the cape verde disturbance could be the classic cape verde hurricane. conditions ahead of the system is conducive for development. the ridge is expected to streghen and move west which will keep this disturbance on atrack that could bring it close to the lesser antilles. although at the moment there is no model support for the system. i exect that to change as soon as the designation to 94l comes about.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2636
2178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03:41 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
some how I doubt that 93L or pre-94L will recurve in fact I expect 93L to start moving SW soon the move W being just E of the Leeward Islands and for pre-94L to be just E of the southern end of the Leeward Islands
maybe because thats the way you want it to go but sorry these things will go the way they want
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
2177. ClearwaterRain
03:41 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
so when should we here in Florida be expecting a decent storm? i know Colin and 93L are outta the question. but maybe the soon to be 94L will head our way. not wishing for a sever hurricane but a nice big storm would tickle my fancy lol.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
2176. Neapolitan
03:40 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
The BIG Picture.

Note all that Gulf and Caribbean water just simmering under nearly cloudless skies; the 26.C isotherm gets deeper and TCHP rises. Wee...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES14452010219Q9c7AK.jpg
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
2174. JavPR
03:39 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
future 94L is looking nice...
Member Since: June 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
2173. wunderkidcayman
03:37 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
some how I doubt that 93L or pre-94L will recurve in fact I expect 93L to start moving SW soon the move W being just E of the Leeward Islands and for pre-94L to be just E of the southern end of the Leeward Islands
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11265
2172. SLU
03:35 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
wanted to be as conservative as the NHC lol


They've been very up and down this season. 92L gets 10% and the Eastern Atlantic wave hasn't been mentioned as yet when in truth it has a better chance to develop. lol
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
2171. Neapolitan
03:33 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


model inner nest shows it at 30n55w in 126hrs


And as a hurricane no less...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
2170. stoormfury
03:31 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
wanted to be as conservative as the NHC lol
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2636
2169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03:31 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010


model inner nest shows it at 30n55w in 126hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
2168. Thaale
03:28 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)


Quoting SLU:


I think that would be the best explanation.


Thank you both.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
2167. SLU
03:26 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs


I was hoping you'd say in the next 12 to 24 minutes.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
2166. Neapolitan
03:25 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting stoormfury:
the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs


Agreed...if not even sooner.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
2165. TropicalAnalystwx13
03:24 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31600
2164. stoormfury
03:22 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2636
2163. PanhandleChuck
03:22 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2162. SLU
03:20 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Black and white.

So finally the NHC recognises the Cape Verdes system as a wave.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951
2161. Neapolitan
03:18 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Mother Nature's B-Day presents to me:
-An anemic Colin
-A fizzled 92L
-A well organized 93L


For your sake, you'd best hope she keeps being stingy... :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13474
2160. WeatherNerdPR
03:16 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Mother Nature's B-Day presents to me:
-An anemic Colin
-A fizzled 92L
-A well organized 93L
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5657
2159. SLU
03:15 PM GMT die 07o August, anno 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)


I think that would be the best explanation.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4951

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.