Forecasting the volcanic ash plume of Iceland's volcano
The eruption of Iceland's volcano with the unpronounceable name, Eyjafjallajökull, has virtually ceased over the past few hours, with ash only reaching up to 6,000 feet (1800 meters), according to the latest advisory from the UK Met Office. Lightning images from UK Met Office show no new lightning strikes from the volcano's plume since midnight local time today. The relatively small amount of ash present at low altitudes will probably not be able to make it all the way to mainland Europe before falling to the surface and dissipating, since 6,000 feet is below the altitude that the strong winds of jet stream blow. Wednesday through Sunday, the volcano emitted a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The jet stream blows strongly at that altitude range, which allowed for efficient transport of the ash cloud to mainland Europe.
Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky in this photo of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption taken on April 16, 2010. Ash particles colliding together separate electric charge, much as ice particles in a thunderstorm do, leading to spectacular lightning displays. Image credit: Marco, Fulle, Stromboli Online.
Forecasts of the movement of the ash cloud are made using trajectory models, which have a number of uncertainties to consider. Firstly, the amount of ash ejected by the volcano is highly uncertain, since our measurements of this quantity are limited. Secondly, the models must compute how high the ash cloud will rise (plume rise), based on the best available measurements of atmospheric stability. Since upper air-observations are taken just twice daily by a very coarse network of balloon soundings, our knowledge of the stability is rather crude. Finally, the trajectory models use forecast winds from a global model such as the GFS model to predict where the plume may go. The forecast winds from this model do not capture much of the complicated structure of the wind field over Europe, leading to a rather fuzzy approximation of where the ash will go. Nevertheless, these models have in general done a respectable job forecasting where the ash from Eyjafjallajökull will go over the past few days.
Figure 2. Cross section of the atmosphere over time over Paliseau, France, on April 16, 2010, as observed using ground-based lidar. Image taken using a 532nm cross polarization NFOV telescope. Note how the ash layer sinks closer to the ground as time progresses, as gravity makes the ash sink to the ground. There may also be some atmospheric subsidence occurring (downward moving air due to large-scale atmospheric processes.) Image credit: Ray Hoff, World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch's Aerosol Lidar Network (GALION).
For the next few days, these models continue to indicate that northwest winds at the jet stream level will continue to affect Iceland. As a result, Spain, Portugal, and Greece will offer the best locations to fly from. The northwesterly winds are expected to continue for the remainder of the week, thanks to an upper-level trough of low pressure over northern Europe. On Saturday April 24, the ECMWF model predicts that the trough will slide eastwards, and a ridge of high pressure will build over Europe. This will bring upper-level winds out of the southwest to Iceland, directing any volcanic ash northwards over the North Pole. Thus for the remainder of this week, expect continued ash clouds over much of Europe if the volcano resumes significant eruptions. But by next Sunday, the ash over Europe should decline considerably. For the latest one-day forecasts of where the ash cloud is expected to go, consult the UKMET Office. The Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne also has some excellent simulations from an atmospheric dispersion model of Eyjafjallajökull's eruption plume. The Norwegian Institute for Air Research runs a computer trajectory model called FLEXPART that has 1-day forecasts showing a cross section of the atmosphere. NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) lets you perform your own model run using their HYSPLIT model, going out up to 48 hours, using the GFS model as input.
Figure 3. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of the eruption at 1:20 UTC on April 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Links
An excellent source of links of information on the eruption is available at http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/04/eyjafjallajok ul-links-liens-a-propos-de-leyjafjallajokul/. My post on Thursday discusses the likely non-impact of this eruption on Earth's climate. Finally, we need to be keeping an eye on earthquake activity at the dangerous Katla volcano next to Eyjafjallajökull. If that volcano blows, it could mean dwarf the headaches caused by Eyjafjallajökull.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes, it is my signature texting move....lol.
Nope, It appears the 26C isotherm will be expanding northward.
OMG, on the deck, across the Channel in April, brrrrrrr.
What's that saying, "be careful what you wish for". Actually I bet she realized what she WAS capable of after this trip.
Unfortunately those maps only go back to 2002. We still have the OSDPD ones though, but they're daily, not monthly averages. 1998 is the next closest SST profile analog, with the biggest difference being the state of the El Nino at this time that year.
April 17th 1998:
April 19th 2005:
April 19th 2010:
How Quaint..
Saw a lot in 2005,..more than most would care to remember.
Ill pass that on to some family members lost as well.
..and I didnt start posting till April of 06..
To be awarded, doubtless, in Moria, in Khazad-dum.
Out of all those graphics 2010 is the most alarming.
im assuming strap yourself to the flagpole? only thing is what if that house flies toward your flag pole?
Keep in mind its mid April...
yeah but look at close to home compared to the two years, much cooler water
Which will easily warm up to support major hurricanes as we get into the heart of the season.
not as good as the ones on this blog... but good nonetheless.
Here's the link
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36645958?GT1=43001
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36645958?GT1=43001
Okay... officially giving up trying to post link. SORRY!!!!
The Iceland Met Centre said the ash plume is at 20,000 ft just south of Iceland, link to that article:
Link
This ash cloud is moving towards the UK. Recent article below:
Link
El Nino almost DEAD!!!
The web-cams have had a "nervous breakdown". No, not really, access to people outside of Iceland has been cut off, so the local citizens can access important info.
One of the web-cams had that message. Now all we get is an "error message"!!
We are "left out in the cold", sniff, sniff!
North_Pacific_Overview.DAY.jpg
NAM 300 mb Loop
Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)
Apr 19 Tonight
Isolated thunderstorms this evening. Skies will become partly cloudy after midnight. Low 63F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Apr 20 Tomorrow
Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 77F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Apr 20 Tomorrow night
Isolated thunderstorms in the evening. Cloudy skies overnight. Low 68F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Apr 21 Wednesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Apr 22 Thursday
Abundant sunshine. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 23 Friday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 24 Saturday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 25 Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 26 Monday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 27 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Apr 28 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 70s.
This time it's really down evidently. Should have shown my source. Sorry about that. (you need to translate it though)
edit: It's in Icelandic not Norwegian.
Here is the translation:
Web server with Webcams on Eyjafell collapse due to stress
Posted on 21:10, April 19th, 2010 by jonfr
It's been happening increasingly now the last day to a web server hosting Webcams pointing to Eyjafjallaj%uFFFDkull collapse busy these days due to pressure from abroad. Because news of the eruption of the foreign interest has increased enormously, and people turned to the internet to see what is going on. Also to obtain information about Eyjafjallaj%uFFFDkull.
People find the course Webcams available here on the country and refer to Eyjafell. However, these websites are poorly equipped to deal with the stress attached to this interest, and then one applies whether the case of Vodafone, miles or other private companies here in Iceland. All of these hosting service have so far given the stress involved because of this interest.
This problem is very bad, because it is a lot of people out in the world that wants to monitor the eruption without having to come to Iceland. Reasons for this may be as many people a lot. It is namely so that it does not have any money and time to come to Iceland to watch the eruption .
it's the operating system i believe. i can not post links in safari but i can in firefox. i don;t know what it would be for pc. hope it helps.
Let's just keep in mind though that warm SSTs in the Caribbean don't by themselves determine when the first TD of the year will form. The Caribbean is warm enough to support hurricanes year-round. A warmer-than-normal Caribbean does make it easier for a potential disturbance to develop in May, but it's the upper-level atmospheric conditions that really determine when the first storm of the year can try to form.
Not with the active power lines right there....
Idk about the building surviving but a person inside....nope.
NO, if it was a reinforced concrete building on a concrete foundation, that would be perfect.
That building will be shredded to pieces in 155+MPH winds.
i don't care what ya call it if yer gonna strap yerself to a flagpole in a cat five iam gonna watch and i would pay too my only advice make sure ya got a red flashin beacon on top of yer head so it will be easy to see amongst all the other crap that will be floating in the sea water
what is the point really? does it make you feel better?
I know, we were talking today about how conditions may be favorable in early May, but that's obviously not guaranteed and I just want to point out that it's not the SSTs that really determine early-season development.
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