Historic Nor'easter pounds Mid-Atlantic coast
A historic Nor'easter, energized by the remains of Hurricane Ida, is pounding the coast form North Carolina to New Jersey with heavy rain, tropical storm-force winds, and a destructive storm surge. Wind gusts of 64 mph were reported at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and at Cape Henry, VA this morning. The high winds, combined with the slow movement of the Nor'easter are acting to push near-record storm surges onto the coast in Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. At Norfolk, Virginia, the storm surge from Ida-ex was 5.0 feet at 10 am EST, the third highest storm surge there since tide gauge records began in 1927. Only Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and the Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane of 1933 have brought higher storm surges to Norfolk. Serious coastal flooding is occurring from northern North Carolina to the Delaware/New Jersey border, and the storm surge at Lewes Point, Delaware at 10 am this morning was 4.0 feet, just below the record high of 4.17' set during the January 4, 1992 Nor'easter. Tide records go back to 1919 at Lewes Point.
Figure 1. The Ida-ex Nor'easter at 9:31 am EST 11/12/09. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
The highest storm surges on record at the Sewell's Point tide gauge in Norfolk, Virginia are:
5.62' Sep 2003 Hurricane Isabel
5.61' Aug 1933 Chesapeake-Atlantic Hurricane
5.00' Nov 2009 Ida-ex
4.73' Sep 1933 Hurricane 13, Cat 1
4.66' Mar 1962 Ash Wednesday Nor'easter
4.05' Sep 1936 Hurricane 13, Cat 2
And the highest water levels, measured above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide measured in a full 19-year natural tidal cycle):
1933 hurricane (Aug 23rd 1933)..............8.9 feet MLLW
April 11th 1956 Nor'easter..................8.0 feet MLLW
Hurricane Isabel (Sep 18th 2003)............7.9 feet MLLW
Ash Wednesday storm (Mar 7th 1962)..........7.8 feet MLLW
The water level during high tide this morning at 5 am EST reached 6.7' MLLW in Norfolk at Sewell's Point, but the storm surge of Ida-ex has increased by a full foot since then. The next high tide at 5 pm may see water levels near 8.2 feet. The tremendous amount of rain Ida-ex is dumping over the coast is adding to the storm surge, since the drainage of the rivers into the coastal bays raises the water level above what the wind pushes in.
Figure 2. Predicted storm tide (height above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide measured in a full 19-year natural tidal cycle, black line) for Sewell's Point, Virgina in Norfolk, as predicted by the GFS model. A storm tide of 8.0 feet is forecast this afternoon during the 5 pm EST high tide. For a full description of this plot, see the NOAA Extratropical Surge web site.
Figure 3. Tide gauge trace from the Sewell's Point gauge in Norfolk, VA, shows a storm surge of 5 feet (green line) at 10 am EST, and a maximum tide of 6.7 feet above MLLW so far today. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Norfolk radar shows a large area of 4 - 5 inches of rainfall over coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The band of very high rainfall amounts of 5 - 8 inches shown in the northeast part of the radar display is not real; rainfall amounts in that region have been closer to 2 - 4 inches. The error results because at that distance from the radar, the beam is about 8,000 feet above the ground, and is hitting a "bright band" of highly reflective precipitation, where snow is melting and forming rain. The highly reflective rain/snow area reflects much more of the radar beam back, making the software algorithm used to estimate precipitation amounts fail.
You can follow the storm today with our Severe Weather Page.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Actually it happens quite frequently during the winter. Its called phasing. Ex-Ida only redeveloped as a nor'easter due to the strong shortwave that was digging deep into the south from the northern jet. Without it, ex-Ida most likely would have just passed east and out into the Atlantic.
That'll work. Be safe and get us some good pics!
I think I used to be 21.
I also want to prase you for the early perdiction on the three storms coming together. I was trying to find the blog you first posted it in, but to many to look through
I think for MD/DE/NJ it was a surprise. Thats why you will see alot of pics of stuff that would have been done if it was a predicted storm vs what we got.
I think NY/NJ needs a better eye on this as I think the slow speed, a warm gulf stream, the blocking high to the north might very well keep this one a slow mover, closer to the coast and be a larger impact then what is being predicted.
I just dont see the storm stalling around the capes till tomorrow night then making a right hand turn out to sea. I see a more NNE track inside the 40/70 benchmark. Just my observation on that one and I know its against the models and the NWS but I just have my gut feeling on this one.
Peak value lessened, error (a.k.a. anomaly) went way up, falling tide is over...
My take is that GFS backed off the winds...and I don't think it is right. Given the error of 2 feet at low tide (now) and the error of 0.5 foot at high tides (average of the last 3 cycles), I am going to say the forecast is missing the peak this afternoon by between 0.5 to 1.0 foot.
A Lightning Strike in Africa Helps Take the Pulse of the Sun
"Even though Africa is thousands of miles from Israel, lightning signals there bounce off the Earth's ionosphere--the envelope surrounding the Earth--as they move from Africa to Israel," Prof. Price explains. "We noticed that this bouncing was modulated by the sun, changing throughout its 27-day cycle. The variability of the lightning activity occurring in sync with the sun's rotation suggested that the sun somehow regulates the lightning pattern."
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
Told ya there was a NorEaster from Hell coming.....just the Snow isn't gonna be there it appears as i first thought.
Penalty! Unnecessary Blandness!
i don't think that guy knows what he's talking about! LMAO
Not really, Bonedog.
It be DENIAL. :):(
I'm 17 in my head. The mirror laughs and cries simultaneously.
21 is perfect for me, wink, wink (in my dreams...)
Got a design for Deadskins?
Change of topic, back to topic, add-on;
o boy, Jeff Morrow is at OC, MD.
Link
LOL...me too...we used to go down to the drive thru and get bronto burgers...LOL
But that design infers that they are ALIVE.
I think Grateful Dead has already copywritten appropriate graphics, unfortunately.
Link
Quoting StormW:
I used to be 21.
LOL...me too...we used to go down to the drive thru and get bronto burgers...LOL
yeah, and you made you car go by running your feet really fast....
;)
You bet...damned Dino used to jump the fence and leave coprolites in my yard...
How do you think I screwed uo my back? Brakes, baby!
Did/will EPI work? (Fingers crossed.)
QUESTION--FOR ALL --WOULD A HIGH PRESSURE--PLACED OVER THE STORM HELP--IMMEDIATE ANSWER
PLEASE
Please forgive me if this is a repeat but I just tuned in. Isn't this east coast hybrid taking on the characteristics of the 1991 "perfect storm"?
Wha-at? And that's what they give to women in labor? (I know, in different location).
I didn't have one with my son. That's why I only had one kid (natural kiss my arse, don't do it, get EPI anyway, lurkers.)
It could cause it to move inland more and possibly a higher wind gradient with the High and LOw.
Where were you when P451 and reedzone needed you? Impressive looking storm, isn't it?
That's what Greg Forbes said on TWC all last night, over and over again due to the magic of video.
All from Hampton Roads/Tidewater (inclusive of VA Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Hampton, Newport News, Smithfield, Yorktown, etc.)
Nope the same players are now no longer in place as they was in the GOM. IDA moved North to fast for everything to come together there. This is simply a classic NorEaster currently that loves the very warm Gulf Stream.
Hang in there, hon...
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